Reading EXP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXP free→Reading EXP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXP free→NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If EXP cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $220.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $215 EXP trades at 16× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $177 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $200–$246. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 22% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.33 → $3.43 (+3.2% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,831.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the materials sector shows positive revenue growth, it could lift Eagle's performance. This is a key trend.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EXP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective May 21, 2026, the Compensation Committee, as part of its annual compensation review, approved long-term incentive equity awards under the Eagle Materials Inc. 2023 Equity Incentive Plan (“Plan”) to a group of the Company’s officers, including its named executive officers. The awards are comprised of performance-vesting restricted stock uni…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$200.00 – $246.00 (median $219.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXP Eagle Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
CRH CRH plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VMC Vulcan Materials Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
CX CEMEX SAB DE CV | — | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Significant progress on modernizing the Laramie Cement and Duke Gypsum Wallboard plants to enhance capacity and reduce costs.
Strengthen capital structure to support growth and disciplined capital allocation.
Maintain focus on growing net income despite challenging market conditions.
Eagle Materials aims to sustain robust cash flow from its operations to support its financial health.
Why it matters: A big drop in net earnings shows ongoing problems with making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q1 net earnings down year over year worse than -10%.
Disproves:Q1 net earnings decline less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A continued drop in cash flow shows trouble in managing operations. This could hurt future investments.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations falls below $78 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is stable or above $78 million.
Why it matters: More net income means better profits and efficiency.
Confirms:Net income rises above $80 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $80 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and results. Watch for signs of stability.
Confirms one read:New CEO outlines a clear strategy and vision within the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Leadership is uncertain with no clear path from the new CEO.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows if the company is improving its profitability. This is key for investors.
Confirms:Q1 net income growth reported above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: More sales mean strong demand in construction. This helps revenue grow.
Confirms:Cement sales volume growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Disproves:Cement sales volume growth falls below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows the company can fund its growth and pay dividends. It's crucial for stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth in the sector may mean recovery and higher demand for Eagle's products.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 1% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this project could increase production and lower costs. This helps long-term profits.
Confirms:Commissioning of the new kiln line at the Mountain Cement plant begins as scheduled in late 2026.
Disproves:Delays in the commissioning of the new kiln line at the Mountain Cement plant.
Why it matters: Increased spending can drive demand for Eagle's products, boosting revenue.
Confirms:Public infrastructure spending increases by more than 5% year over year.
Disproves:Public infrastructure spending decreases or grows less than 2% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Information responsive to Item 5.02(b): On May 15, 2026, William R. Devlin, Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Eagle Materials Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to retire from his position effective as of June 1, 2026. He has served the Company in this capacity for over 20 years. Mr. Devlin wil…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 19, 2026, Eagle Materials Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Eagle”), announced its results of operations for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Eagle’s earnings press release announcing these results is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, Eagle Materials Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Eagle”), announced its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of Eagle’s earnings press release announcing these results is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.