Eagle Materials (EXP)

NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$174.71-2.25%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Eagle Materials’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-8.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.15 → 12.99 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	556.22M
EPS	—	3.036
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	2.32B
EPS	—	12
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	2.39B
EPS	—	12.99

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $3.76 next quarter	Profit margins remain stable with an EPS target of $3.76 next quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.76 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $3.29 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3.76 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20263.29 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eeb47bce-c2b6-400d-8590-59c75151b09b. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income growth despite market challenges	A primary condition in Eagle Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Net income stabilizes or grows from $60.2 million in Q4 FY26.	Under Pressure	Net income declines further below $60 million	Net income: $102.127M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Net income stabilizes or grows from $60.2 million in Q4 FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026102,127,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eeb47bce-c2b6-400d-8590-59c75151b09b. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite record revenue growth to $2.3 billion in fiscal 2026 and Cement sales volume up 8%, net earnings declined 9% to $423.8 million, reflecting cost pressures and market softness. The trajectory shows limited progress on net income growth despite volume gains. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Progress on modernizing Laramie and Duke plants	A supporting condition in Eagle Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Significant progress with >66% progress score.	Intact	Modernization progress stalls below 50% progress score	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reported meaningful progress on modernizing Laramie Cement and Duke Gypsum Wallboard plants, with Mountain Cement about 60% complete and commissioning expected late 2026; Duke plant commissioning expected second half 2027. The trajectory shows delivering progress consistent with stated timelines. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 3.7% next fiscal year	Revenue growth is expected near 3.7% next year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.7% in FY27	Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eeb47bce-c2b6-400d-8590-59c75151b09b. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite record revenue growth to $2.3 billion in fiscal 2026 and Cement sales volume up 8%, net earnings declined 9% to $423.8 million, reflecting cost pressures and market softness. The trajectory shows limited progress on net income growth despite volume gains. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$12.99

$14.67 → $12.99 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.39B

$2.45B → $2.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.67	$2,453,603,539	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$14.51	$2,447,888,030	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$14.67	$2,453,603,539	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$14.51	$2,447,888,030	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$14.67	$2,453,603,539	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$14.61	$2,447,887,983	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$14.51	$2,447,888,030	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$14.18	$2,442,134,250	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$14.46	$2,462,489,805	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$14.23	$2,462,600,920	8 / 9
2026-08-11	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$14.18	$2,462,563,290	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$14.40	$2,462,600,917	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$14.35	$2,462,563,287	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$14.35	$2,462,563,287	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$14.35	$2,462,563,287	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$14.35	$2,462,563,287	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$14.35	$2,462,563,287	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$14.35	$2,462,563,287	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$14.30	$2,462,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$14.15	$2,443,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$14.15	$2,443,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$14.15	$2,443,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$14.15	$2,443,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$14.15	$2,443,563,287	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$14.15	$2,443,635,228	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$14.15	$2,443,635,228	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$14.15	$2,443,633,294	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$14.10	$2,443,464,407	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$14.10	$2,443,464,407	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$13.88	$2,432,013,207	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$13.88	$2,432,013,207	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$13.76	$2,429,313,207	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$13.76	$2,429,313,207	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$13.76	$2,429,313,207	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$13.58	$2,416,313,207	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$13.42	$2,407,083,207	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$13.42	$2,407,083,207	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$13.42	$2,407,083,207	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$13.42	$2,407,083,207	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$13.42	$2,407,083,207	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$13.42	$2,407,083,207	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$13.22	$2,398,415,142	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$13.22	$2,398,415,142	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$13.16	$2,392,386,872	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$13.16	$2,392,386,872	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$13.16	$2,392,386,872	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$12.99	$2,387,076,872	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$12.99	$2,387,076,872	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$12.99	$2,387,076,872	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$12.99	$2,387,076,872	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	9	1
2026-06-01	1	9	1
2026-07-01	1	9	0
2026-08-01	1	10	0
2026-09-01	1	11	0
2026-10-01	0	11	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior May 20

$219.00 → $170.00-22.4%

Truist FinancialOct 8

$165.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Sep 9

$196.00 → $188.00-4.1%

$0$120.45$240.90

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $3.76 next quarterDiluted EPS: $3.29 per share
Net income growth despite market challengesPublished status: Under Pressure
Progress on modernizing Laramie and Duke plantsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth near 3.7% next fiscal yearRevenue growth: 0%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Eagle Materials outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EXP is a cyclical materials business with a modernization and growth case, rather than a clear near-term earnings-growth story. The long-term thesis state is insufficient because recent financial-performance history is too limited, and confidence has fallen to low.

What's priced into Eagle Materials

The valuation evidence is mixed: EXP is marked cheap versus peers, but the overall expectations tag is stretched. The model shows a 16% expectations gap and medium confidence, while valuation fragility is low; the evidence does not specify exactly what operating expectations are embedded.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, cost pressure and market softness remain concerns: fiscal 2026 revenue reached $2.3 billion and Cement sales volume rose 8%, but net earnings fell 9% to $423.8 million. Management has made progress on plant modernization and capital structure, but earnings growth remains behind its stated priority; recent earnings records are mixed, including a latest-quarter miss noted in the risk evidence.

What Eagle Materials hinges on

Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers CRH, VMC, and MLM would support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on completing the Laramie and Duke plant projects on schedule and translating volume gains into net income growth.