Knife River Corporation (KNF)

NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$53.12-1.36%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Knife River Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	783.9M
EPS	—	0.527
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.43B
EPS	—	2.564
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.56B
EPS	—	3.11

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital flexibility with manageable debt	A supporting condition in Knife River Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No further significant debt increases beyond $400 million loan raise.	Intact	Additional large debt raises or capital strain occur	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from negative $86 million	A primary condition in Knife River Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $0 million.	Improving	Operating income remains negative through FY26	Operating income: $81.114M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $0 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202681,114,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: df026e93-efb4-4c4d-9460-9426ebecb8c3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue near $3.4 billion	A primary condition in Knife River Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.4 billion.	Improving	Annual revenue falls below $3.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $938.587M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.4 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026938,587,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: df026e93-efb4-4c4d-9460-9426ebecb8c3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.56B

$3.62B → $3.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-01	$3.82	$3,600,830,266	5 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$3,619,293,570	4 / 9
2026-08-07	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,642,968,010	4 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,642,968,010	4 / 9
2026-08-10	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.69	$3,627,464,016	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.57	$3,659,471,667	5 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,659,471,667	4 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.54	$3,665,461,429	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.54	$3,665,451,911	5 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,665,451,911	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,625,737,625	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,593,467,545	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,588,800,878	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,579,089,767	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,575,170,849	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,564,015,294	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	2	1
2026-06-01	6	2	1
2026-07-01	6	2	1
2026-08-01	6	3	1
2026-09-01	6	3	1
2026-10-01	5	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Aug 5

$103.00 → $58.00-43.7%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Sep 9

$62.00 → $54.00-12.9%

$0$56.65$113.30

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital flexibility with manageable debtDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves from negative $86 millionOperating income: $81.114M
Annual revenue near $3.4 billionRevenue: $938.587M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Knife River Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KNF is a growth-through-acquisitions and expansion story, with execution risk rather than a clear durable compounder profile today. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue growth is progressing, but the company is loss-making and overall evidence confidence is low.

What's priced into Knife River Corporation

KNF trades at a 1.32 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative and valuation is tagged as justified. This suggests the valuation already allows for some growth, but the evidence does not show a large expectations cushion; confidence in that assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been supported by acquisitions and organic expansion, while adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 14.9% in 2026-Q2 despite aggregate pricing improvement. Energy costs and project timing remain headwinds, and recent earnings misses add risk; management has raised guidance, so a reversal would also hurt credibility.

What Knife River Corporation hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether revenue growth can translate into better margins while management continues disciplined investment. Sector bellwethers CRH, VMC, and MLM are important signals: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.