SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL (SCCO)

NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-10-23

$185.01+0.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+5.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.19 → 7.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.43B
EPS	—	2.022
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	4.27B
EPS	—	1.952
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	17.3B
EPS	—	7.937
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	16.87B
EPS	—	7.562

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital allocation and debt prudently	A supporting condition in SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and capital obligations.	Intact	debt or capital obligations materially impair financial flexibility	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase copper production to 1.6 million tons by 2033	Southern Copper is growing copper output toward 1.6 million tons by 2033.	Improving	copper production fails to grow toward 1.6 million tons by 2033	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Copper production was 693,602 tonnes year-to-date in 2026, down 2.9% from the 2025 year-to-date figure stated in the 2026-Q3 release. The project pipeline is advancing, including Tia Maria at 49.6% completion, but current production is declining against the stated growth objective, so delivery is mixed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain cost-efficiency discipline	A primary condition in SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL's published investment case. The stated target is maintain cost-efficiency discipline.	Improving	cost-efficiency discipline weakens or costs rise materially	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Operating cash cost per pound, net of by-product revenue credits, was $0.09 in 3Q26, versus $0.42 in 3Q25, a reported decrease driven mainly by higher by-product credits. This is measurable cost improvement and indicates delivery on the operational cost-efficiency focus, though the stated reduction is not solely from underlying operating cost changes. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue near $13.42 billion in 2026	A primary condition in SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.42 billion revenue.	Intact	revenue falls below $13.42 billion in FY26	Revenue: $4.289B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.42 billion revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20264,289,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 09ce4b82-2e18-4133-abb3-9d8c503c6f82. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Copper production was 693,602 tonnes year-to-date in 2026, down 2.9% from the 2025 year-to-date figure stated in the 2026-Q3 release. The project pipeline is advancing, including Tia Maria at 49.6% completion, but current production is declining against the stated growth objective, so delivery is mixed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.56

$7.27 → $7.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.87B

$16.02B → $16.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.27	$16,020,010,130	13 / 13
2026-07-25	$7.23	$16,025,617,160	13 / 13
2026-07-26	$7.23	$16,025,617,160	13 / 13
2026-07-27	$7.19	$16,053,636,607	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$7.23	$16,042,001,780	13 / 13
2026-07-29	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-07-30	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-01	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-05	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-06	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-09	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-10	$7.22	$16,038,619,740	13 / 13
2026-08-12	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$7.18	$16,065,697,321	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$7.04	$16,068,610,537	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$7.03	$16,011,610,537	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$7.03	$16,011,610,537	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$7.03	$16,011,610,537	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$7.03	$16,011,610,537	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$7.03	$16,011,610,537	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$7.02	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$7.02	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$7.02	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$7.03	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$7.03	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$7.03	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$7.03	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$7.03	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$7.02	$15,996,896,252	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$7.02	$16,003,636,502	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$7.01	$16,003,310,753	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$7.01	$16,003,310,753	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.01	$16,003,310,753	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.01	$16,003,310,753	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$7.15	$16,175,469,888	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$7.19	$16,281,603,222	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$7.38	$16,571,457,628	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$7.43	$16,640,880,245	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$7.43	$16,640,880,245	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$7.43	$16,640,880,245	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$7.43	$16,648,546,912	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$7.43	$16,648,546,912	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$7.43	$16,648,546,912	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$7.45	$16,719,362,917	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$7.45	$16,719,362,917	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$7.45	$16,719,362,917	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$7.45	$16,719,362,917	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$7.45	$16,735,543,544	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$7.45	$16,735,543,544	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$7.51	$16,781,553,711	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$7.50	$16,782,184,116	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$7.50	$16,782,184,116	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$7.52	$16,807,385,999	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$7.56	$16,872,486,465	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	5	11
2026-06-01	2	5	11
2026-07-01	2	6	11
2026-08-01	1	6	11
2026-09-01	1	6	11
2026-10-01	1	6	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 11 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 23 · prior Jul 9

$172.00 → $193.00+12.2%

BarclaysOct 19 · prior Jul 23

$166.00 → $168.00+1.2%

UBSOct 8 · prior Jun 30

$160.00 → $180.00+12.5%

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Jul 8

$158.00 → $170.00+7.6%

$0$106.15$212.30

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital allocation and debt prudentlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase copper production to 1.6 million tons by 2033Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain cost-efficiency disciplineDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue near $13.42 billion in 2026Revenue: $4.289B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a copper producer with a durable premium in the evidence, rather than a turnaround story. Recent financial performance is strong and the thesis is intact, but elevated risk and mixed progress against management’s priorities temper the picture.

What's priced into SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL

Valuation is tagged stretched, and SCCO carries a durable premium versus peers. The valuation measure rose from 41.2 to 55.8, while the expectations gap is 0.22; the evidence suggests some optimism is reflected, but does not show the full set of conditions that would make the setup especially fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, recent results include earnings beats in July and October, and the reported miss risk is low, though mining has a high miss rate and SCCO has a deep miss in its recent history. Over the multi-year view, Tia Maria progress supports the growth plan, but year-to-date 2026 copper production was down 2.9% from the comparable 2025 period, and the cost decline partly reflects higher by-product credits.

What SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on production growth, continued project progress, and cost discipline translating into sustained results. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while earnings and guidance from sector peers FCX and IE can signal whether the Materials sector tailwind is strengthening or fading.