VALE SA (VALE)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$11.39+1.88%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put VALE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 19% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskVALE's case rests on its iron-ore-linked earnings, but revenue growth cannot be assessed from this desk. The desk lacks earnings history, and Q3 pro forma EBITDA fell year over year. VALE trades at 21× P/E versus a 17× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite that premium. A next-quarter miss probability of 43% threatens the case. The recent 18% drop also signals possible thesis repricing. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. VALE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 27 analysts currently covering VALE (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for VALE in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare VALE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Diversified Metals & Mining — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put VALE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
EBITDA fell year over year, signaling weaker operating performance, though one quarter alone does not break the thesis.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $11.39
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $11.39.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Strengthens financial position and market access in China.
Downgrade indicates concerns about growth potential.
