VALE SA (VALE)

NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.40+1.64%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge VALE SA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.84 → 1.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	10.89B
EPS	—	0.461
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	41.07B
EPS	—	1.687
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	41.13B
EPS	—	1.706

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
free cash flow next year	Free cash flow remains positive.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $5 billion next year	Free cash flow: $1.239B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261,239,382,810 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
profit margin next year	Revenue could grow about 5% next year.	Broken	profit margin falls below 20% next year	Net margin: 12.92% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=25%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202612.915944 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
revenue growth next year	Revenue could grow about 5% next year.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 0% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.71

$1.90 → $1.71 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$41.13B

$41.19B → $41.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.90	$41,187,491,341	8 / 13
2026-07-25	$2.04	$41,267,955,950	12 / 22
2026-07-26	$1.90	$41,263,868,121	8 / 12
2026-07-27	$2.04	$41,285,000,420	12 / 22
2026-07-28	$2.04	$41,285,000,420	12 / 22
2026-07-29	$2.04	$41,284,993,590	12 / 22
2026-07-30	$2.04	$41,284,993,590	12 / 22
2026-07-31	$1.90	$41,276,548,521	8 / 12
2026-08-01	$1.90	$41,276,548,521	8 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-03	$2.08	$41,263,648,490	12 / 21
2026-08-04	$2.08	$41,385,145,300	12 / 22
2026-08-05	$2.08	$41,283,477,250	12 / 21
2026-08-06	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-09	$2.06	$41,296,100,040	12 / 21
2026-08-10	$2.06	$41,296,100,040	12 / 21
2026-08-12	$2.05	$41,347,052,430	12 / 21
2026-08-13	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-15	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-16	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-17	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-18	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-19	$1.91	$41,280,695,716	8 / 12
2026-08-20	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.86	$41,309,759,597	8 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-08-31	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-01	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-02	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.86	$41,207,259,597	8 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.85	$41,178,818,912	8 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.85	$41,178,818,912	8 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.85	$41,178,818,912	8 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.85	$41,178,818,912	8 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.85	$41,178,818,912	8 / 12
2026-09-14	$1.85	$41,178,818,912	8 / 12
2026-09-15	$1.85	$41,216,617,102	8 / 12
2026-09-16	$1.85	$41,216,617,102	8 / 12
2026-09-17	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-18	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-19	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-20	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-21	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-22	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-23	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-24	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-25	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-26	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-27	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-28	$1.84	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-29	$1.83	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-09-30	$1.83	$41,208,426,626	8 / 12
2026-10-01	$1.82	$41,241,452,127	8 / 12
2026-10-02	$1.82	$41,241,452,127	8 / 12
2026-10-03	$1.82	$41,255,928,318	8 / 12
2026-10-04	$1.82	$41,255,928,318	8 / 12
2026-10-05	$1.82	$41,255,928,318	8 / 13
2026-10-06	$1.82	$41,255,928,318	8 / 13
2026-10-07	$1.80	$41,310,577,812	8 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.79	$41,315,420,669	8 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.79	$41,315,420,669	8 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.79	$41,315,420,669	8 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.77	$41,315,420,669	8 / 12
2026-10-12	$1.77	$41,315,420,669	8 / 12
2026-10-13	$1.76	$41,316,087,336	8 / 12
2026-10-14	$1.76	$41,295,611,145	8 / 12
2026-10-15	$1.76	$41,295,611,145	7 / 12
2026-10-16	$1.74	$41,180,234,563	7 / 12
2026-10-17	$1.74	$41,180,234,563	7 / 12
2026-10-18	$1.74	$41,177,478,366	7 / 12
2026-10-19	$1.74	$41,177,478,366	7 / 12
2026-10-20	$1.74	$41,177,478,366	7 / 12
2026-10-21	$1.72	$41,125,697,773	7 / 12
2026-10-22	$1.72	$41,133,760,794	7 / 12
2026-10-23	$1.71	$41,127,377,020	7 / 12
2026-10-24	$1.71	$41,125,837,382	7 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	12	1
2026-06-01	14	12	0
2026-07-01	13	14	0
2026-08-01	11	15	1
2026-09-01	10	14	1
2026-10-01	12	14	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Deutsche BankOct 16 · prior May 15

$18.00 → $15.00-16.7%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Apr 20

$17.00 → $15.00-11.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Jul 8

$16.50 → $15.50-6.1%

$0$9.90$19.80

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

free cash flow next yearFree cash flow: $1.239B
profit margin next yearPublished status: Broken
revenue growth next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

VALE SA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical, growth-sensitive Materials investment, where business conditions can shift with economic growth and sector momentum. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with low overall evidence confidence and no fresh thesis break reported.

What's priced into VALE SA

The valuation evidence points to VALE trading at a premium to peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear slightly ahead of the model’s view. The evidence labels this pricing as justified and fragility as low, but confidence in the valuation model is only medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the near term, a 43% estimated miss probability and consecutive recent earnings misses point to execution risk. Earnings quality is rated robust, while recent financial performance is neutral and below its industry cohort; sector context also fell sharply, creating a headwind for the multi-year thesis.

What VALE SA hinges on

Sector bellwethers continuing to beat earnings and raise guidance could support Materials-sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% would be a further headwind because the sector is more growth-sensitive than the average stock.