MP Materials (MP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$41.64+1.41%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MP beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 26% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 18%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 48% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMP’s rare-earth growth case depends on revenue expansion overcoming unprofitability and weak recent performance. Revenue growth accelerated to 89% year over year in Q2 FY2026 from 49% in Q1. Q2 earnings were inline, with non-GAAP EPS of negative 0.01. MP trades at 24× sales versus 1× for peers, despite 32× its own historical multiple. The market is pricing in more growth than forecast, leaving expectations full. Management is running behind on a stated commitment, and the model puts next-quarter miss probability near 22%. Peer multiples imply a price about 450% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. MP is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering MP (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Diversified Metals & Mining — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MP next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Break ground and build 10X magnetics facility
Expansion aligns with growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.