MP Materials (MP)

NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.30-0.67%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MP Materials’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-20.6% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.81 → 0.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	137.03M
EPS	—	0.007
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	449.61M
EPS	—	-0.044
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	772.24M
EPS	—	0.644

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA improvement	Profit improved with adjusted EBITDA up $39 million.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA falls below -$2.7 million in any future quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above guidance	A primary condition in MP Materials's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.03 in FY 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $0.03 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $-0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.03 in FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 2026-0.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 69a1c41e-f303-464a-869d-1826eefee1e9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Break ground on 10X magnetics facility	A supporting condition in MP Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Construction initiated on 10X magnetics facility by end 2026.	Improving	No construction start announced by end 2026	Construction status: advancing (qualitative) June 2026 news reports MP Materials deepening US ties and advancing magnet expansion, strongly reinforcing the 10X facility objective. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management broke ground on the 10X magnetics facility in 2026-Q1 and reported accelerated construction in 2026-Q2. Guidance expects the 10X Facility to generate at least $140 million EBITDA annually after reaching full capacity. Progress is consistent with management's stated build and ramp plans. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
NdPr production and sales volumes growth	NdPr sales rose 117% year over year.	Intact	NdPr production or sales volumes fall below 563 and 464 tons respectively in any future quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. NdPr production grew from 597 MT in 2025-Q2 to 840 MT in 2026-Q2 (+41%), and sales grew from 443 MT to 1,006 MT (+127%) over the same period. This trajectory matches management's stated focus on ramping NdPr production and sales, demonstrating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.64

$0.98 → $0.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.77B

$0.79B → $0.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.98	$794,806,440	15 / 13
2026-07-25	$0.96	$785,070,270	15 / 14
2026-07-26	$0.96	$785,070,270	15 / 14
2026-07-27	$0.94	$788,471,879	11 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.96	$785,070,270	15 / 14
2026-07-29	$0.96	$785,070,270	15 / 14
2026-07-30	$0.96	$785,070,270	15 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.95	$782,193,190	15 / 14
2026-08-01	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.95	$782,193,190	15 / 14
2026-08-05	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.95	$785,011,050	14 / 14
2026-08-09	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.88	$806,406,820	15 / 12
2026-08-13	$0.88	$806,406,820	15 / 12
2026-08-14	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.93	$785,738,546	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.83	$791,707,523	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.83	$791,707,523	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.83	$791,707,523	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.82	$779,550,566	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.82	$779,550,566	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.82	$779,550,566	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.82	$791,138,292	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$0.83	$790,676,753	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.81	$779,746,676	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.78	$778,592,830	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.78	$778,592,830	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.78	$778,592,830	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$0.78	$778,592,830	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$0.77	$770,836,199	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$0.77	$770,836,199	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$0.75	$769,109,082	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$0.74	$769,125,332	11 / 10
2026-10-10	$0.74	$769,125,332	11 / 10
2026-10-11	$0.74	$769,125,332	11 / 10
2026-10-12	$0.74	$769,125,332	11 / 10
2026-10-13	$0.74	$769,125,332	11 / 10
2026-10-14	$0.74	$769,125,332	11 / 10
2026-10-15	$0.69	$772,196,761	10 / 10
2026-10-16	$0.69	$772,196,761	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$0.69	$772,196,761	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$0.69	$772,196,761	10 / 10
2026-10-19	$0.69	$772,196,761	10 / 10
2026-10-20	$0.69	$772,196,761	10 / 10
2026-10-21	$0.69	$775,091,182	10 / 10
2026-10-22	$0.69	$775,091,182	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$0.69	$775,091,182	10 / 10
2026-10-24	$0.64	$772,237,325	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	0
2026-06-01	18	0
2026-07-01	18	0
2026-08-01	18	0
2026-09-01	18	1
2026-10-01	18	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA improvementDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS at or above guidanceDiluted EPS: $-0.11 per share
NdPr production and sales volumes growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MP Materials outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not a proven compounder, because the business is still loss-making. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on production and facility plans, while recent financial performance remains weak.

What's priced into MP Materials

MP trades at a 16.76% premium to peers, and the valuation evidence is low confidence. The priced-in signal is tagged unjustified, with optionality as the main driver and an expectations gap of 4.07; in plain terms, the valuation appears to rely on future growth that is not yet fully supported by results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results remain uncertain: MP missed earnings in August after beats in February and May, and its performance has been well below its industry cohort. Over the multi-year view, NdPr production and sales have grown, and construction of the 10X magnetics facility has advanced, but both efforts are still in progress and the business remains loss-making.

What MP Materials hinges on

The thesis depends on continued growth in NdPr production and sales, successful completion and ramp-up of the 10X facility, and whether new heavy rare-earth initiatives gain commercial traction. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; stronger or weaker results and guidance from sector bellwethers could also change the sector backdrop.