Linde plc (LIN)

NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$498.43+1.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Linde plc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

19.59 → 19.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Support growth with CAPEX of $5B to $5.5B in 2026	A supporting condition in Linde plc's published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $5.0B and $5.5B.	Intact	CAPEX falls below $5.0B in FY26	Capital expenditures: $1.438B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $5.0B and $5.5B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261,438,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase EPS by 7% to 9% for full year 2026	Linde is the largest industrial gas company with steady 7% to 9% EPS growth guidance for 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $17.60 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $17.60 and $17.90. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20264.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 278f1037-b940-4a0c-a4b3-1e7c7d8ca9be. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve Q2 EPS growth of 8% to 10%	A supporting condition in Linde plc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $4.40 and $4.50.	Intact	Q2 EPS falls below $4.40	Diluted EPS: $4.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $4.40 and $4.50. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20264.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 278f1037-b940-4a0c-a4b3-1e7c7d8ca9be. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$19.60

$18.31 → $19.60 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$38.11B

$37.78B → $38.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$18.31	$37,783,698,820	10 / 24
2026-07-25	$19.62	$37,749,916,649	10 / 18
2026-07-26	$19.63	$37,749,916,649	10 / 18
2026-07-27	$18.31	$37,783,698,820	10 / 24
2026-07-28	$18.31	$37,783,698,820	10 / 24
2026-07-29	$18.31	$37,783,698,820	10 / 24
2026-07-30	$18.31	$37,783,698,820	10 / 24
2026-07-31	$19.63	$37,749,916,649	10 / 18
2026-08-01	$19.63	$37,749,916,649	10 / 18
2026-08-02	$19.63	$37,819,273,698	10 / 18
2026-08-03	$18.27	$37,828,606,590	10 / 24
2026-08-04	$18.27	$37,828,606,590	10 / 24
2026-08-05	$18.40	$37,975,829,670	11 / 24
2026-08-06	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-07	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-08	$18.32	$37,982,970,010	12 / 24
2026-08-09	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-10	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-12	$18.32	$38,005,847,420	12 / 24
2026-08-13	$18.32	$38,005,847,420	12 / 24
2026-08-14	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-15	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-16	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-17	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 18
2026-08-18	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 19
2026-08-19	$19.62	$37,917,856,834	10 / 19
2026-08-20	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-21	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-22	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-23	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-24	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-25	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-26	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-27	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-28	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-29	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-30	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-08-31	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-09-01	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-09-02	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 19
2026-09-03	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	11 / 19
2026-09-04	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	11 / 19
2026-09-05	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	11 / 19
2026-09-06	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 18
2026-09-07	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 18
2026-09-08	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 18
2026-09-09	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 18
2026-09-10	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 18
2026-09-11	$19.59	$38,052,728,365	10 / 18
2026-09-12	$19.59	$38,120,696,697	10 / 19
2026-09-13	$19.59	$38,120,696,697	10 / 19
2026-09-14	$19.59	$38,120,696,697	10 / 19
2026-09-15	$19.59	$38,120,680,697	10 / 19
2026-09-16	$19.59	$38,120,680,697	10 / 19
2026-09-17	$19.59	$38,120,680,697	10 / 19
2026-09-18	$19.59	$38,120,680,697	10 / 19
2026-09-19	$19.59	$38,120,680,697	10 / 19
2026-09-20	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-21	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-22	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-23	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-24	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-25	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-26	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-27	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-28	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-29	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-09-30	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-10-01	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-10-02	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-10-03	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-10-04	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-10-05	$19.59	$38,120,683,638	10 / 19
2026-10-06	$19.59	$38,124,193,899	10 / 20
2026-10-07	$19.59	$38,124,193,899	11 / 20
2026-10-08	$19.59	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-09	$19.59	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-10	$19.59	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-11	$19.59	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-12	$19.59	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-13	$19.59	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-14	$19.60	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20
2026-10-15	$19.60	$38,109,638,738	11 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	5	2
2026-06-01	22	5	1
2026-07-01	22	6	1
2026-08-01	21	6	1
2026-09-01	22	5	1
2026-10-01	23	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Aug 3

$553.00 → $549.00-0.7%

BarclaysOct 12

$577.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 3

$612.00 → $574.00-6.2%

Argus ResearchSep 28

$538.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$336.60$673.20

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Support growth with CAPEX of $5B to $5.5B in 2026Capital expenditures: $1.438B
Increase EPS by 7% to 9% for full year 2026Diluted EPS: $4.15 per share
Achieve Q2 EPS growth of 8% to 10%Diluted EPS: $4.15 per share

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Linde plc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team and a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent strong results despite a challenging sector backdrop.

What's priced into Linde plc

The market seems to price in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations for continued earnings growth. However, the valuation appears stretched, indicating that any negative news could lead to a significant adjustment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its targets for adjusted earnings per share growth and capital expenditures. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts.

What Linde plc hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets. Additionally, sector performance, particularly from leading companies, and inflation trends will be critical factors to monitor.