Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$19.92-2.02%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Recover towards cross-cycle margin levels: operating margin -6.4% vs target >0%.
Clearwater Paper aims to cut $50M in fixed costs by 2025. It targets $1.45B to $1.55B revenue in 2026. The company plans to recover profit margins to normal levels. Recent earnings beats show some progress despite challenges.
Pricing pressures may hurt profits and cost cuts. The company lost $10.4M in operating income in 2026-Q1. Revenue growth is expected to be flat or negative. The stock is risky and unprofitable now.
The price is about 57% below our fair value near $37. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth. Our fair value is much higher than the Street's median of $19.
Breaks if: fixed cost reduction falls below $50 million in FY25
Clearwater Paper plans to recover towards cross-cycle margin levels and cash flows through demand growth and supply changes.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a focus on cost reduction and volume growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and management faces significant challenges in improving margins.
The market appears to price CLW as relatively cheap compared to its peers, but expectations are low, indicating that investors are not anticipating strong performance in the near term. The valuation reflects a justified stance, with a notable expectations gap.
Management is on track with cost reduction and volume growth initiatives, but the overall financial performance remains weak, with negative adjusted EBITDA. The near-term risk of missing earnings estimates is elevated, especially given the company's smaller size and the industry's high miss rate.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Clearwater Paper expects $20M-$30M in Q3 adjusted EBITDA. This reflects cost reduction and operational efficiency efforts. However, the company missed earnings expectations in its latest report. This miss raises concerns about its financial performance going forward.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: operating income remains below zero over next 4 quarters
Clearwater Paper plans to recover towards cross-cycle margin levels and cash flows through demand growth and supply changes.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.45 billion in FY26
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on cost reductions and achieve volume growth while navigating industry challenges. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance from sector bellwethers will play a critical role in shaping the outlook.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CLW's performance will depend on its operational execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.