Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)

NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.29+1.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Clearwater Paper Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	371.97M
EPS	—	-0.403
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.5B
EPS	—	-3.37
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.56B
EPS	—	-0.775

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $50M fixed cost reduction	A primary condition in Clearwater Paper Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million fixed cost reduction.	Intact	fixed cost reduction falls below $50 million in FY25	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Recover towards cross-cycle margin levels	The company plans to recover profit margins to normal levels.	Broken	operating income remains below zero over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-23.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income improves from -$10.4M in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026-23,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f701eab4-3bfc-472f-bd29-b0a229fdeed7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue target $1.45B-$1.55B	A primary condition in Clearwater Paper Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue between $1.45B and $1.55B.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.45 billion in FY26	Revenue: $374.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue between $1.45B and $1.55B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026374,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f701eab4-3bfc-472f-bd29-b0a229fdeed7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	3
2026-08-01	1	3
2026-09-01	1	3
2026-10-01	1	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $50M fixed cost reductionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Recover towards cross-cycle margin levelsPublished status: Broken
Revenue target $1.45B-$1.55BRevenue: $374.8M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Clearwater Paper Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical recovery thesis, meaning results depend partly on an industry rebound, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still weak and uncertain: recent financial performance is weak, risk is elevated, and the signal has moved from cautious to mixed.

What's priced into Clearwater Paper Corp.

CLW is described as cheap versus peers, but the model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The valuation tag is justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the risks from ongoing losses and weak results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain pressured: CLW missed its most recent quarter and reported negative adjusted EBITDA in the first two quarters of 2026. Volumes grew year over year, while management is targeting annual savings of $8 to $12 million through cost actions; so far, these efforts have not produced a clear margin recovery.

What Clearwater Paper Corp. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether volume gains, lower imports, and cost reductions lead to better margins and an industry recovery. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers IP, LPX, and SLVM could support the sector backdrop.