Reading CHMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHMI free→Reading CHMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHMI free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CHMI's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.39 CHMI trades at 8× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $3.50 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.13 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$339.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,479.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became inexpensive. Risk fell, indicating a reduction in overall risk levels. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect mortgage demand. It also impacts the economy.
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise a lot. This shows that consumers are spending more.
Confirms the other:Retail sales fall or grow slowly. This signals weakness in the economy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHMI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (the “Company”) reported its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHMI Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities.
Aim to stabilize net income amidst market fluctuations.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect mortgage rates and housing demand.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps or lowers rates. This suggests a more relaxed approach.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (the “Company”) approved and adopted the 2026 Executive Compensation Plan (the “Plan”) for the Company's participating executive officers, effective as of January 1, 2026. The Plan was approved by the Board based on the recommendation of the Compen…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (the “Company”) reported its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (the “Company”) reported its results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Financial Officer As previously disclosed by Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (the “Company”) in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on May 27, 2025, the Company appointed Apeksha Patel to serve as its Interim Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Secretary, e…