Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI)

NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.56+0.79%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.15M
EPS	—	0.14
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	38.15M
EPS	—	0.575
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	43.9M
EPS	—	0.53

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities improves to at least $12 million	Cherry Hill Mortgage is improving cash flow from operations, reaching $12.6 million in 2026-Q1.	Broken	cash from operating activities falls below $10 million next quarter	Cash from operations: $4.641M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12 million USD. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 10, 20264,641,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $12.5 million in 2025-Q2 and increased slightly to $12.6 million in 2026-Q1, indicating management's focus on improving operational cash flow. The trajectory shows modest improvement consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend payout at $0.10 per share	It maintains a steady dividend payout of $0.10 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.10 in 2026-Q4	Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=0.10 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published May 7, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 40c54679-e8bc-4315-a610-7bc131fae778. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income stabilizes above $0.4 million	A primary condition in Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.4 million USD.	Intact	net income falls below $0.4 million in any quarter through 2026-Q3	Net income: $3.794M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.4 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 20263,794,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5a0da088-ab53-4924-b230-147b12f2d31f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. GAAP net income improved from a loss of $2.0 million in 2026-Q1 to a positive $1.3 million in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward stabilizing earnings. The trajectory is delivering improvement consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -60% YoY	A supporting condition in Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=-60% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds 60% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	0
2026-06-01	2	0
2026-07-01	2	0
2026-08-01	2	2
2026-09-01	2	2
2026-10-01	0	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities improves to at least $12 millionPublished status: Broken
Maintain dividend payout at $0.10 per shareDividend per share: $0.10 per share
Net income stabilizes above $0.4 millionNet income: $3.794M
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -60% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk, income-focused mortgage real estate investment trust, not a steady growth story. Its thesis state is watch: the signal recently improved to mildly favorable, but results remain weak relative to the industry cohort.

What's priced into Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp

The valuation evidence is mixed: CHMI is described as cheap versus peers, yet the model also shows a sizable premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.25. The priced-in tag is unjustified, while fragility is low; the evidence does not clearly explain what assumptions the market already reflects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, performance could remain uneven: CHMI is loss-making on the broader earnings-quality measure, and the estimated chance of a miss is 41%, though that is a watch signal rather than a price call. Management has maintained the regular dividend and slightly improved operating cash flow, while net income moved from a loss in Q1 2026 to a profit in Q2; its earnings-stabilization progress is mixed. Recent events included an earnings beat, a material agreement related to M&A activity, and a litigation filing.

What Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on net income becoming more stable and management maintaining its stated priorities. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength or higher guidance from sector peers would be favorable sector signals; a guidance cut at CHMI’s next call would be an important negative. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, and the evidence gives limited detail on the M&A agreement and litigation.