Reading CENX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENX free→Reading CENX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENX free→NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The valuation hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $55 CENX trades at 15× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $66 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.31 → $2.32 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$268.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$640.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,356.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Restarting production at Mt. Holly could significantly boost aluminum shipments and revenue. It is a key part of management's growth strategy.
Confirms:Production at Mt. Holly resumes with over 50,000MT of idled production by the end of Q2.
Disproves:Production at Mt. Holly does not restart as planned by the end of Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CENX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Century Aluminum Company (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a follow-up conference call on Thursday, May 7, 2026 , at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The earnings call will be webcast live on the Company’s website, located at www.century…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CENX Century Aluminum Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Focus on increasing operating income through strategic cost management and revenue growth.
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review. (a) Century Aluminum Company (the “Company”) has recently changed the manner in which it accounts for certain assets and related asset retirement liabilities and other liabilities in connection with its Jamalco joint venture (the “Jamalco Production Assets”). Since its acquisition of a 55% interest in Jamalco in May 2023, the Company has been accounting for the Jamalco Production Asse…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026 , Century Aluminum Company (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a follow-up conference call on Thursday , February 19, 2026 , at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The earnings call will be webcast live on the…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On February 2, 2026, CAKY completed the sale of the Property to the Purchaser pursuant to the terms of the Purchase and Sale Agreement. The information set forth under the subheading “Purchase and Sale Agreement” in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Purchase and Sale Agreement On February 2, 2026, Century Aluminum of Kentucky General Partnership, a Kentucky general partnership (“CAKY”) and Justified DataPower LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Purchaser”), entered into an agreement of purchase and sale (the “Purchase and Sale Agreement”), pursuant to which, among other things, CAKY sold certain real property comprised of approximately 750 acres and commonly known as 1627 State Route 35…