NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (3q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 8% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 34%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 72% growth a year, above the roughly 34% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 40% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCENX's growth trajectory relies on its recent expansion at the Mt. Holly facility, which is expected to boost U.S. aluminum capacity by 10%. Revenue growth is supported by favorable revised tariff policies that could enhance earnings potential. Currently, CENX trades at 13× P/E versus an 18.9× peer median, indicating that the market is pricing in more growth than is justified, as expectations look full. A specific risk is the potential for a guidance cut, as our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 50%. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% below where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. CENX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 3 analysts currently covering CENX (as of Jul 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Revised tariffs could significantly boost revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Expansion boosts revenue growth through increased capacity.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Tight markets and tariffs support revenue growth.
Legal action could delay smelter operations.
