Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-29
$33.70-2.74%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put CENX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 54% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCENX’s low P/E and strong recent performance support a bet on improved aluminum volumes. Revenue growth is unreported, so acceleration is unverified; Q2 FY2026 earnings beat expectations. It trades at 6× earnings versus a 17× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite modest expectations. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 51%. Fragile cash backing and a proposed smelter venture’s leverage and execution risks could weaken the case. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. CENX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 5 analysts currently covering CENX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CENX in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CENX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Political instability could affect production capacity and operations.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $33.70
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $33.70.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand production capacity at Mt. Holly smelter
Oklahoma smelter progress supports production capacity expansion.
Advances: Improve adjusted EBITDA through metal pricing and operational efficiency
Strong earnings improve adjusted EBITDA outlook significantly.
Advances: Improve adjusted EBITDA through metal pricing and operational efficiency
Return to profit enhances EBITDA and operational efficiency.
Advances: Improve adjusted EBITDA through metal pricing and operational efficiency
Record EBITDA supports operational efficiency and pricing objectives.
Advances: Improve adjusted EBITDA through metal pricing and operational efficiency
Q3 EBITDA guidance supports operational efficiency objective.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Revised tariffs could significantly boost revenue growth.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Expansion boosts revenue growth through increased capacity.