Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.42-3.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Century Aluminum Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA (Century to range between)	$325M–$345Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	994.26M
EPS	—	2.911
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.35B
EPS	—	10.053
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.12B
EPS	—	11.113

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain gross profit near $118.8M in Q1 2026	Gross profit doubled from $57.3M to $118.8M.	Improving	gross profit falls below $57.3 million	Gross profit: $227.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $118.8 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026227,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ee2bc1a4-1cec-4d0b-9f95-4db697ca3f50. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain operating income near $374M in Q1 2026	Operating income surged from $42.8M to $374M, showing strong cost control.	Improving	operating income falls below $42.8 million	Operating income: $211.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $374 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026211,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ee2bc1a4-1cec-4d0b-9f95-4db697ca3f50. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
No major delays from legal challenges to Oklahoma smelter	A supporting condition in Century Aluminum Company's published investment case. The stated target is No significant regulatory delays or injunctions through 2026.	Intact	Legal rulings cause smelter construction or operation delays	0% delays vs 0% target News confirms smelter progress and Q3 FID target; no legal rulings causing delays found. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near $649M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Century Aluminum Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $649.2 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	quarterly revenue falls below $633.9 million	Revenue: $752.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $649.2 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026752,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ee2bc1a4-1cec-4d0b-9f95-4db697ca3f50. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	0
2026-06-01	3	0
2026-07-01	3	0
2026-08-01	4	0
2026-09-01	4	0
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 14

$40.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 8 · prior Aug 10

$60.00 → $55.00-8.3%

$0$33.00$66.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross profit near $118.8M in Q1 2026Gross profit: $227.9M
Sustain operating income near $374M in Q1 2026Operating income: $211.6M
Sustain revenue growth near $649M in Q1 2026Revenue: $752.1M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Century Aluminum Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical aluminum producer, so results can move with metal prices and sector conditions. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong and key operating priorities on track, but elevated risk and fragile earnings quality make the setup uneven.

What's priced into Century Aluminum Company

CENX is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing assessment says current expectations are justified rather than reflecting a severe fragility discount. The negative expectations gap suggests the market is not fully pricing in the favorable case, but valuation confidence is only medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, production and revenue have risen as the Mt. Holly expansion and restart increased shipments, while adjusted EBITDA has improved with metal prices, regional premiums, and operating gains. However, consecutive earnings misses, a recent non-reliance filing, and elevated risk leave the next results vulnerable; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.

What Century Aluminum Company hinges on

The multi-year view depends on CENX sustaining higher output and operational gains while converting them into reliable earnings. Near-term sector signals matter too: continued strength from AA and KALU could support the Materials backdrop, while weaker results or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.