Reading CAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAR free→Reading CAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAR free→NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. If CAR cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $185.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $185 CAR trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $576 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $85–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.89 → $1.81 (-4.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -22.0% above current price.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$259.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$598.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,959.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: High usage rates show good fleet management and strong demand.
Confirms:Vehicle usage is above 70% for Q2.
Disproves:Vehicle usage drops below 65% for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Asset-backed financing extension
Reshaping debt profile supports capital allocation objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), our Avis Budget Rental Car Funding (AESOP) LLC subsidiary (“ABRCF”) issued $650 million of asset-backed securities with a maturity of three years and five years, respectively, comprised of $182.50 million aggregate principal amount of Series 2026-3 4.82%, Class A notes, $23.75 million aggregate principal amount of Series 2026-3 5.21%, Class B notes, $16.25 million aggregate principal amount of Series 2026-3 5.50…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$85.00 – $160.00 (median $140.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CAR Avis Budget Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NVT nVent Electric plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Extend and amend asset-backed variable-funding financing facilities for car rental fleet.
Transition of Principal Accounting Officer with internal promotion.
Focus on managing financial obligations and capital allocation.
Why it matters: Successful financing would improve cash flow and help manage the fleet.
Confirms:A new financing deal backed by assets was announced. It is worth over $500 million.
Disproves:No new financing deals announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth shows that prices and usage are going up, as management noted.
Confirms:Q2 revenue per day growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue per day growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss would show progress in managing costs and improving operations.
Confirms:Net loss for Q2 is less than $200 million.
Disproves:Net loss for Q2 exceeds $300 million.
Advances: Asset-backed financing extension
Reshaping debt profile supports capital allocation objectives.
Ending contract with Verra Mobility impacts competitive positioning.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described above under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Tina Goldenberg to the position of Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of the Company, effective June 15, 2026. Cathleen DeGenova, who is retiring, will continue to serve as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer until June 14, 2026. Ms. DeGenova will continue to…
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, Avis Budget Car Rental, LLC (“ABCR”) and Avis Budget Finance, Inc. (together, the “Issuers”), each, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Avis Budget Group, Inc. (the “Company”), issued $300 million aggregate principal amount of 8.000% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “New Notes”). The New Notes were issued as additional notes pursuant to the Indenture, dated as of November 22, 2023 (the “Base Indenture”), as supplemented by the First Supplemental Indenture, dated as of May 29…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (the “Company,” “we,” “our” or “us”) reported our first quarter 2026 results. Our first quarter 2026 results are discussed in detail in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…