Avis Budget Group (CAR)

NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$101.34-0.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Avis Budget Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.66B
EPS	—	-1.192
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	11.62B
EPS	—	3.076
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	11.8B
EPS	—	5.862

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful extension and management of asset-backed financing	The company extended asset-backed financing, which helps manage its fleet costs.	Improving	Failure to maintain or extend asset-backed financing facilities	Qualitative: $650M ABS issued Sep 2026 CAR issued $650M in 5-year asset-backed securities in September 2026, successfully extending its debt profile. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable management with smooth leadership transitions	A supporting condition in Avis Budget Group's published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions over next 12 months.	Intact	Significant management turnover or disruption	No major disruptions; 1 non-CEO/CFO departure (Sep 2026) noted as smooth Sep 2026 departure of EVP/Chief Digital & Innovation Officer described as smooth; no CEO/CFO changes reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 2% annually	A primary condition in Avis Budget Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 2% next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$8.40 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.80B

$12.21B → $11.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.40	$12,211,489,130	5 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$12,140,258,060	4 / 6
2026-07-26	$7.82	$12,198,574,710	5 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$12,140,258,060	4 / 6
2026-07-28	$7.82	$12,198,574,710	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$7.82	$12,198,574,710	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$7.82	$12,198,574,710	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$6.33	$11,956,955,070	5 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$11,900,936,672	4 / 6
2026-08-02	$6.29	$11,870,155,070	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$6.29	$11,870,155,070	5 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-05	$6.29	$11,870,155,070	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$6.29	$11,870,155,070	5 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-09	$6.29	$11,870,155,070	5 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$11,870,222,386	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$11,831,961,500	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$11,843,292,131	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$11,810,606,417	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$11,810,606,417	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$11,810,606,417	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$11,802,074,901	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	5	3
2026-06-01	0	6	3
2026-07-01	0	6	2
2026-08-01	0	6	2
2026-09-01	0	6	2
2026-10-01	0	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Revenue growth at or above 2% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-86.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Avis Budget Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, cyclical business with weak recent performance and a loss-making earnings profile. The multi-year view is on watch: management has made some progress on fleet use and liquidity, but results and execution remain mixed.

What's priced into Avis Budget Group

The valuation evidence is mixed: CAR is described as cheap versus peers, while a separate peer comparison shows a premium and the expectations gap is negative. Confidence in that assessment is low, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear valuation cushion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a 65% estimated chance of a miss and a record of recent misses. Over the multi-year view, fleet utilization has improved and liquidity has risen, but first-half revenue was nearly flat and Adjusted EBITDA declined, leaving management’s progress mixed.

What Avis Budget Group hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would add to concerns, while continued earnings misses among recent quarters already make execution a key risk. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength among industrial bellwethers could support the sector setting, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.