Reading BV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BV free→Reading BV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BV free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BV is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If BV reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that would be a significant credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 BV trades at 27× p/e — 1.3× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $16 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.29 (-0.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 6 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$303.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,246.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how BrightView is doing financially. This helps us see its future.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better financial numbers than last quarter.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows more losses or bad trends in key numbers.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, BrightView Holdings, Inc (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BV BrightView Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the full-year revenue guidance for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $614.7M in 2026-Q1 to $702.9M in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.745 to $2.795 billion, indicating a positive trajectory.
“Raises full-year revenue guidance to $2.745 to $2.795 billion.”
“Reaffirming our guidance for fiscal 2026 and are well-positioned to deliver top-line profitable growth.”
“Company Provides Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance... Total Revenue $2.670 to $2.730 billion.”
Management aims to deliver top-line profitable growth for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved from -$7.1M in 2026-Q1 to $16.1M in 2026-Q2, showing progress towards profitable growth. Management's focus on top-line growth is delivering results.
Management maintains adjusted free cash flow guidance for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $46.2M in 2026-Q2. Management maintains adjusted free cash flow guidance of $100 to $115 million for fiscal 2026, indicating a stable trajectory.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for BrightView. The sector has been slowing, and any change could impact BrightView's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrials sector is speeding up again. It is above 5%.
Disproves:Revenue growth is below 5%. It may keep slowing down.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. BrightView Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), its wholly-owned subsidiary, BrightView Landscapes, LLC (the “Credit Agreement Borrower”), the other credit parties party thereto, the lenders or other financial institutions or entities party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent (the “Agent”), entered into Amendment No. 10 to the Credit Agreement dated as of May 4, 2026 (the “Credit Agreement Amendment”), whic…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, BrightView Holdings, Inc (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") pursuant to
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 19, 2025, BrightView Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) pursuant to
“We are well-positioned to deliver top-line profitable growth.”
“Company Provides Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance... Total Revenue $2.670 to $2.730 billion.”
“We are reaffirming our guidance for fiscal 2026 and are well-positioned to deliver top-line profitable growth.”
“Company Provides Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance... Adjusted Free Cash Flow $100 to $115 million.”