BrightView Holdings, Inc. (BV)

NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.59-1.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BrightView Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	604.21M
EPS	—	-0.037
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.75B–$2.78B	—
Snow Removal revenue	About $290M	—
EBITDA	$340M–$345Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$70M–$80Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.76B
EPS	—	0.611
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.87B
EPS	—	0.724

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
No worsening of financial obligations or credit terms	A supporting condition in BrightView Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No new negative financial obligations.	Under Pressure	New large financial obligations or credit issues arise	New direct financial obligation & credit amendments (Jun 2026) Item 2.03 filing for new direct financial obligation and Item 1.01 filings for Credit Agreement Amendments 10 and 11. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to positive $16.1 million in Q2 2026	Operating income improved from a loss to $16 million in Q2.	Under Pressure	Operating income remains negative or falls below zero next year	Operating income: $32.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.1M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202632,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a7449744-5329-4b23-bea6-00f746865b7b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Land Maintenance revenue grew 2.3% year-over-year in 2026-Q2, with total revenue up 1.3% to $717.6M. Despite some margin pressure, management emphasizes operational excellence and salesforce expansion to sustain profitable growth. The trajectory shows delivering revenue growth but margin challenges remain. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $2.77 billion in fiscal 2026	BrightView raised revenue guidance to about $2.77 billion for 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.68 billion in FY26	Revenue: $717.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.77B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026717,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a7449744-5329-4b23-bea6-00f746865b7b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year revenue guidance from $2.67-$2.73B in 2025-Q4 to $2.75-$2.78B in 2026-Q2. Revenue for the nine months ended June 30, 2026 increased 3.3% to $2.035B from $1.970B in prior year. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and upward guidance revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	2	2
2026-06-01	8	2	1
2026-07-01	8	2	1
2026-08-01	8	2	1
2026-09-01	8	2	1
2026-10-01	8	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Aug 6

$12.50 → $11.50-8.0%

$0$6.88$13.75

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

No worsening of financial obligations or credit termsPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income improves to positive $16.1 million in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $2.77 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $717.6M

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BrightView Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BV is a growth-and-execution story with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable compounder, since it is loss-making on the evidence provided. Management is stable and has raised revenue guidance, but the current thesis remains on watch because recent results lag the industry cohort.

What's priced into BrightView Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes BV as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the model has medium confidence. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the snapshot does not specify what level of growth or recovery the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, another earnings miss or a guidance cut is a material risk, following consecutive misses and recent weakness versus peers. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth has continued and management has raised full-year revenue guidance, but adjusted free cash flow guidance has been narrowed and nine-month adjusted free cash flow was negative.

What BrightView Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on BV sustaining revenue growth while improving margins and cash generation. Near-term results also depend on whether management avoids a guidance cut and whether sector bellwethers CTAS, CPRT, and ROL continue to report strong results or instead weaken.

Bottom line

BV’s 1-to-3-year view has evidence of revenue progress, but cash flow pressure and elevated earnings risk leave execution uncertain. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.