Reading BRLT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRLT free→Reading BRLT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRLT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BRLT performing below typical compared to sector peers. If BRLT cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.42x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $-0.00 (-133.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$215.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$697.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,164.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can impact consumer spending and interest rates. Changes could affect Brilliant Earth's sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates steady or signals a dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BRLT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BRLT Brilliant Earth Group Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | — | high |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving positive net sales growth in the mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year.
Aim to achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability, slightly lower than 2025 levels.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Why it matters: This report gives insights into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could boost investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to understanding if the company can turn profitable. Positive growth would signal a recovery.
Confirms:Brilliant Earth reports positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative for the next quarter.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 19, 2026, Ian M. Bickley notified the Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (the “Company”) of his resignation from the Board, including from his service on the Audit Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, effective March 31, 2026. Mr. Bickley has indicated to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On December 22, 2025, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (the “Company”) filed (i) a certificate of conversion with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware and (ii) articles of conversion with the Secretary of State of the State of Nevada, pursuant to which the reincorporation of the Company from the State of Delaware to the State of Nevada (the “Reincorporation”) became effective on December 22, 2025, at 4:01 p.m. Eastern Time (the “Effec…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…