Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$0.07 → Unavailable · observed estimates
Brilliant Earth Group Inc (BRLT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23
$1.51-1.31%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 · Q4 | ||
| Revenue | — | 135.18M |
| EPS | — | 0.065 |
| FY 2026 · Annual | ||
| Revenue | $459M–$462M | 460.16M |
| EPS | — | 0.072 |
| FY 2027 · Annual | ||
| Revenue | — | 486.33M |
| EPS | — | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability near 0 | Management targets adjusted EBITDA profitability near 0. | Improving | Operating income remains negative beyond FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$0.07 → Unavailable · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The thesis is in a watch state: execution has improved, but the overall signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence labels BRLT cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low and the company remains loss-making. The expectations gap is close to neutral, while the priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility; the evidence does not support a stronger claim about what the market assumes.
Near-term results show progress: second-quarter net sales grew 6% year over year, adjusted EBITDA turned positive, and management raised full-year guidance for both sales growth and adjusted EBITDA. Showroom expansion is progressing, though its status is mixed; overall risk remains high, and the recent record includes two earnings misses followed by a beat.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued positive sales growth and progress toward adjusted EBITDA profitability. A guidance cut on the next call would be a negative signal, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers TPR, SIG, and MOV could affect the broader sector backdrop for BRLT.
For a 1-to-3-year view, BRLT offers evidence of improving execution, but losses, weak recent performance, and high risk leave the turnaround unproven. The central test is whether growth and profitability progress continue without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash flow improvement is a focus after operating cash fell from $7.2M to -$18.8M. |
| Improving |
| Cash from operations remains negative in FY26 |
Cash from operations: $17.433M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202617,433,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive net sales growth in mid-single-digit percentage | Brilliant Earth aims for mid-single-digit sales growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20265.668466 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b9589056-4ce1-41ad-a3d0-0a0339cdd73e. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net sales grew from $99.5M in 2026-Q1 to $115.1M in 2026-Q2, a 6% year-over-year increase. Management reiterated positive mid-single-digit full year net sales growth guidance. The trajectory is delivering with consistent growth and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.48B → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.07 | $482,250,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.07 | $482,820,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | $486,120,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $486,120,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | Unavailable | $486,120,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $486,320,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.10 | $486,320,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.