Reading BLKB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLKB free→Reading BLKB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLKB free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, helping the company. Compared with sector peers, BLKB trades above typical levels, and its earnings yield is relatively high. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 BLKB trades at 6× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $99 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.36 → $1.28 (-5.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$514.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,179.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in the adjusted EBITDA margin may mean higher costs or problems. This is important for making money.
Confirms:In Q2, the adjusted EBITDA margin is below 35.1%.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 35.1%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BLKB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Blackbaud, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting unaudited financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 . The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLKB Blackbaud | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on improving net income through strategic financial management.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal challenges in maintaining momentum. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 total revenue growth falls below 4.2% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 total revenue growth stays at or above 4.2% year over year.
Why it matters: New AI solutions could enhance Blackbaud's market position and drive revenue growth. This is key for long-term success.
Confirms:Announcement of at least one new Agent for Good AI solution within the next quarter.
Disproves:No new AI solutions launched within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the stock repurchase program could indicate management's confidence in the company's future. This can affect share price.
Confirms:They announced more stock buybacks. This is more than the current plan of 5% to 10%.
Disproves:No updates or a reduction in the stock repurchase program.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Blackbaud, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release reporting unaudited financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 . The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities…