Blackbaud (BLKB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09

$44.07-2.63%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue growth to meet guidance near $1.176B: FY26 revenue guidance $1.18B vs $1.18B target.

The bull case

Blackbaud grows revenue about 5% a year, reaching $1.176B in 2026. Profit margins improve, with operating income rising from $19.7M to $51.4M in one year. Free cash flow is strong near $285M. The stock trades cheap at a PE of 6.5 versus peers near 38.

The bear case

Revenue growth is slow and mixed at about 4.2% recently. The company faces margin pressure and soft guidance. The stock has fallen 23% from highs, reflecting risks to earnings and growth.

What's priced in

The market prices in about 5% revenue growth and values the stock roughly 47% below our $56 fair value. Our view aligns with consensus growth but sees risk from the recent selloff and soft guidance.

What has to stay true

Free cash flow near $285M as guidedIntact
Cash Flowprimary~$285M · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $270M in FY26
Net income growth to sustain recent gainsIntact
Management ExecutionsupportingNet income >= $31M · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: Net income falls below $20M next year
Operating income improvement through cost efficiencyIntact
Management ExecutionprimaryOperating income >= $51.4M · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: Operating income fails to sustain above $40M next year

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Warn· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

BLKB's long-term thesis remains intact with strong recent performance and management focus on growth.

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial results and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Blackbaud (BLKB)

The market currently prices BLKB as cheap compared to its peers, with expectations that are slightly below average. There is a low level of fragility in the current environment, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strength, as management is on track with priorities that support revenue growth and profitability. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.

What Blackbaud (BLKB) hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's guidance in the next earnings call and potential interest rate cuts from the Fed. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like SAP, CRM, and NOW will be important for maintaining momentum in the tech sector.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company is investing in AI innovation and product development. This will drive revenue growth and expand AI-powered solutions. There are no current threats to the thesis.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.