Blackbaud (BLKB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$55.54-1.66%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Blackbaud’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	311.69M
EPS	—	1.458
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.17B–$1.18BGAAP	1.18B
EPS	$5.15–$5.25non-GAAP	5.245
EBITDA	$430M–$438Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	5.97

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $285M as guided	Free cash flow is strong near $285M.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $270M in FY26	Free cash flow: $37.958M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$285M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202637,958,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income growth to sustain recent gains	A supporting condition in Blackbaud's published investment case. The stated target is Net income >= $31M.	Intact	Net income falls below $20M next year	Net income: $35.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $31M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202635,358,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d6efb536-bdc0-48c7-8afb-46063754eac9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement through cost efficiency	Profit margins improve, with operating income rising from $19.7M to $51.4M in one year.	Intact	Operating income fails to sustain above $40M next year	Operating income: $62.016M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $51.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202662,016,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d6efb536-bdc0-48c7-8afb-46063754eac9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP income from operations increased from $57.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $62.0 million in 2026-Q2, with operating margin improving by 100 basis points to 21.3%. The trajectory shows delivering improvements in operating income and margin consistent with management's stated focus on operational efficiency. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to meet guidance near $1.176B	A primary condition in Blackbaud's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.176B.	Under Pressure	Annual revenue falls below $1.12B in FY26	Revenue: $290.597M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.176B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026290,597,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d6efb536-bdc0-48c7-8afb-46063754eac9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$5.87 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.23B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$5.87	$1,227,250,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$5.89	$1,230,340,400	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	3	2
2026-09-01	2	2
2026-10-01	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $285M as guidedFree cash flow: $37.958M
Net income growth to sustain recent gainsNet income: $35.358M
Operating income improvement through cost efficiencyOperating income: $62.016M
Revenue growth to meet guidance near $1.176BPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Blackbaud outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BLKB is a growing software business with improving profitability and a stated focus on AI-powered solutions. Its long-term thesis is intact, but risk is high and the evidence snapshot gives only medium overall confidence.

What's priced into Blackbaud

The valuation evidence describes BLKB as cheap versus peers, but also shows a 44% premium to peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low; the snapshot does not support a firm conclusion about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has continued, and the Q2 operating margin improved by 100 basis points to 21.3%. Management is on track with revenue growth, profitability, and capital allocation priorities, while recent earnings beats and a marked rise in company quality support the thesis. A guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, despite the stated low near-term miss probability.

What Blackbaud hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued revenue and margin progress, execution on AI-powered solutions, and whether management maintains guidance. Fed rate cuts and strong results from software peers could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would weaken the case.