Reading BKSY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKSY free→Reading BKSY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKSY free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 548% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If BKSY reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31, BKSY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 10× p/s (6.5× the 2× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.82 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $35–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 548% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.37 → $-0.35 (+6.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$432.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,139.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,846.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help BlackSky's performance. It shows a healthier market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward its highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still slowing down.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BKSY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 22, 2026, BlackSky Technology Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC (the “Sales Agents”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell from time to time through the Sales Agents the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), having an aggregate offering price of up to $2…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$35.00 – $50.00 (median $39.25) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKSY BlackSky Technology, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 1 of 100 | expensive | high |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has raised its full year 2026 revenue outlook to between $130 million and $150 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 has been raised from $120 million to $130 million at the low end. However, actual revenue in 2026-Q1 was $20.77 million, down from $35.21 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the higher target.
“The Company is raising its full year 2026 outlook for revenue...”
“BlackSky expects full year 2026 revenue to be between $120 million and $145 million.”
“The Company is maintaining its full-year 2025 guidance for revenue...”
The company is maintaining its full year 2026 outlook for capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently maintained its CAPEX guidance for 2026 between $50 million and $60 million. However, the financials do not provide specific CAPEX figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards this target.
“The Company is maintaining its full year 2026 outlook for capital expenditures...”
The company expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $12 million and $24 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to between $12 million and $24 million. However, with a net income of -$29.66 million in 2026-Q1, achieving positive adjusted EBITDA remains challenging, indicating limited progress.
“Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be between $12 million and $24 million.”
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if BlackSky can improve its financial losses. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, BlackSky Technology Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Principal Accounting Officer On April 2, 2026, Tracy Ward informed BlackSky Technology Inc. (the “Company”) of her intent to resign from her position as the Company’s Senior Vice President, Controller, and Principal Accounting Officer, effective April 24, 2026. Ms. Ward plans to pursue another opportunity, and her resignation is not…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, the Company filed the Initial Form 8-K to issue a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 (the "Original Earnings Release"). The Company is filing an amendment to the Initial Form 8-K to correct an error in the amount of accounts receivable in the three months ended December 31, 2025, which was identified by management while conducting final proc…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, BlackSky Technology Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act…
“Full year 2026 capital expenditures to be between $50 million and $60 million.”
“The Company is maintaining its full-year 2025 guidance for capital expenditures.”
“Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be between $6 million and $18 million.”
“The Company is maintaining its full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted EBITDA.”