BlackSky Technology, Inc. (BKSY)

NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.58+5.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BlackSky Technology, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	47.51M
EPS	—	-0.109
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	141.14M
EPS	—	-1.534
Capital expenditure	$50M–$60M	—
EBITDA	$12M–$24Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth (midpoint)	30%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	192.76M
EPS	—	-0.47

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $12 million and $24 million in FY26	The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $12-$24 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $12 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million in FY26	Capital spending is controlled between $50 million and $60 million.	Intact	Capex exceeds $60 million or falls below $50 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $3.421M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 50-60 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263,421,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures were $15.8 million in 2026-Q1 and $15.4 million in 2026-Q2, consistent with the maintained full year guidance of $50 million to $60 million. Management has consistently maintained this CAPEX range, showing delivery on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue between $130 million and $150 million in FY26	Capital spending is controlled between $50 million and $60 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $130 million in FY26	Revenue: $33.316M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=130 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202633,316,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 665a1bd5-942f-4d0e-a5fd-28d0b8850c62. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $20.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $33.3 million in 2026-Q2, a 60% increase quarter-over-quarter. Management raised and then reaffirmed full year 2026 revenue guidance to between $130 million and $150 million, reflecting delivery and accelerating growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.19B

$0.18B → $0.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$182,785,640	2 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$182,785,640	2 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$182,785,640	2 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$182,785,640	3 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$184,873,140	3 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$184,873,140	3 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$184,873,140	3 / 8
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$190,045,250	2 / 8
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$191,532,750	2 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$191,532,750	2 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$181,709,444	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$191,080,289	3 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$193,015,325	3 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$192,758,067	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$192,762,444	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	0
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $12 million and $24 million in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million in FY26Capital expenditures: $3.421M
Revenue between $130 million and $150 million in FY26Revenue: $33.316M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BlackSky Technology, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business with meaningful execution and sector risks, not a proven compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: the signal recently improved from cautious to mixed, while performance remains well below its industry cohort.

What's priced into BlackSky Technology, Inc.

BKSY trades at a sizable premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence points to an expectations gap tied to future growth options, but the premium is not paired with the broader set of weak, turbulent conditions that would make the setup especially fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance after revenue rose from the first quarter to the second, and adjusted EBITDA moved from a loss to a profit. Progress is mixed on spending and profitability goals, while losses, weak relative performance, and a high-risk sector backdrop remain concerns.

What BlackSky Technology, Inc. hinges on

The next major test is whether management maintains its 2026 guidance; a cut would weaken the case for sustained execution. The multi-year thesis also depends on continued revenue growth and progress toward positive adjusted EBITDA, while results from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the broader backdrop.