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Flanigan's Enterprises Inc (BDL)
AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$37.49+5.71%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting BDL and other Consumer Discretionary names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- AMEX
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $65.92M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1999-01-07
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$73.91consensus
Range $67.14 – $101.22
vs price: -49% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$150.43consensus
Range $150.43 – $150.43
vs price: -75% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $37 BDL trades at 12× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.7x
peer 20.9x · own history —
Premium
0.6x peer
Growth the price needs
-49%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$73.91
range $67.14 – $100.23
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
93rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.99x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
63rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.headwind-6.4%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$596.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,430.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Short-term · Daily
- UpsideMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for June retail sales growth turning positive
Why it matters: More retail sales mean people are spending again. This helps Flanigan's.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 0% for June.
Disproves:Retail sales growth remains negative for June.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BDL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting BDL and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BDL beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2025-09-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BDL and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping BDL and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BDL and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-01-125mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. August H. Bucci has resigned as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President of Flanigan’s Enterprises, Inc., (the “Company”), effective December 31, 2025, but will continue to serve as a member of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”). James G. Flanigan II has resigned as President of the Company and Chairman of the Company’s Boar…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.