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Best Buy (BBY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$75.58-2.36%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BBY is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Market cap
- $16.55B
- Employees
- 82,000
- IPO date
- 1994-01-06
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$123.28consensus
Range $114.28 – $185.17
vs price: -39% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$163.48consensus
Range $130.70 – $333.82
vs price: -54% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $77 BBY trades at 13× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $124 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $60–$90. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.3x
peer 18.5x · own history 12.0x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-37%
our forecast -0%
Our fair value
$123.63
range $113.50 – $183.28
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
96th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
63rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 PT revisions / 30d, avg 17.8% above currentfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.32 → $1.34 (+1.4% / 30d). 12 raised, 6 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 11 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$307.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,200.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 comparable sales growth around 1.0%
Why it matters: This growth is a key indicator of Best Buy's performance against last year's strong gaming launch.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 comparable sales growth reported at or above 1.0%.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth was less than 1.0%.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-106d agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Be a human-powered, customer-focused company
CEO's warning may impact customer focus and sales.
ChallengesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting BBY and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BBY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BBY cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping BBY and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BBY and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2820d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026 , Best Buy Co., Inc. (“Best Buy” or the “registrant”) issued a news release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026. The registrant is scheduled to conduct an earnings conference call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (7:00 a.m. Central Time) today, May 28, 2026 . The earnings conference call is expected to be available live on the registrant’s website at https://investors.bestbuy.com. Neither the news…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.