Best Buy (BBY)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$92.63-1.64%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Best Buy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 16, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.23 → 7.23 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Meet reaffirmed FY27 earnings guidance	Management reaffirmed FY27 EPS guidance of $6.30 to $6.60.	Intact	FY27 EPS falls below $6.30	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableStatus assessment pendingCompare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver FY27 revenue within management's reaffirmed range	Management reaffirmed FY27 EPS guidance of $6.30 to $6.60.	Intact	FY27 revenue falls below $41.2B	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableStatus assessment pendingCompare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Carry out the FY27 share repurchase plan	Its $300 million share repurchase plan adds shareholder returns.	Intact	The company withdraws or materially reduces the $300M FY27 repurchase plan	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableStatus assessment pendingCompare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company returned $441 million to shareholders year-to-date in 2026-Q3 including $36 million in share repurchases, and maintains a $300 million share repurchase plan for FY27. Dividends per share increased slightly to $0.96. Management is delivering consistent capital return aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Oct 16, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.23

$7.04 → $7.23 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$43.39B

$42.57B → $43.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-25	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-26	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-27	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-28	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-29	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-30	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-08-01	$7.04	$42,571,989,639	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-07	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-09	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-11	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$7.05	$42,557,472,210	23 / 22
2026-08-14	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$7.05	$42,566,262,526	14 / 17
2026-08-21	$7.07	$42,604,698,210	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$7.08	$42,629,219,949	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$7.08	$42,629,219,949	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$7.08	$42,629,219,949	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$7.08	$42,641,219,949	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$7.08	$42,640,567,775	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$7.08	$42,640,567,775	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$7.08	$42,640,567,775	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$7.19	$43,248,992,999	14 / 17
2026-08-30	$7.19	$43,248,992,999	14 / 17
2026-08-31	$7.19	$43,248,992,999	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$7.19	$43,248,992,999	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$7.19	$43,248,992,999	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$7.20	$43,283,732,130	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$7.20	$43,283,732,130	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$7.20	$43,283,732,130	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$7.20	$43,283,732,130	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$7.20	$43,283,732,130	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$7.23	$43,345,809,476	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$7.23	$43,345,818,209	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$7.23	$43,378,095,190	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$7.23	$43,378,095,190	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$7.23	$43,378,095,190	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$7.23	$43,378,095,190	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$7.23	$43,378,102,693	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$7.23	$43,378,102,693	14 / 17
2026-10-01	$7.23	$43,378,102,693	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$7.23	$43,378,119,562	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$7.23	$43,378,119,562	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$7.23	$43,378,114,800	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$7.23	$43,378,114,800	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$7.23	$43,378,114,800	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$7.23	$43,378,114,800	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$7.24	$43,402,400,514	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$7.24	$43,402,400,514	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$7.24	$43,402,400,514	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$7.23	$43,391,533,718	15 / 17
2026-10-12	$7.23	$43,391,533,718	15 / 17
2026-10-13	$7.23	$43,391,533,718	15 / 17
2026-10-14	$7.23	$43,391,533,718	15 / 17
2026-10-15	$7.23	$43,391,533,718	15 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	17	2
2026-06-01	6	17	2
2026-07-01	6	18	2
2026-08-01	5	18	2
2026-09-01	5	19	2
2026-10-01	4	19	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 19 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Meet reaffirmed FY27 earnings guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Deliver FY27 revenue within management's reaffirmed rangeDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Carry out the FY27 share repurchase planDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Best Buy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on operational effectiveness and customer service. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial performance despite some management transitions and industry headwinds.

What's priced into Best Buy

The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, indicating that BBY is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that while the stock is priced reasonably, it may not fully account for potential risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to disciplined capital allocation, returning significant capital to shareholders. Recent financial results indicate improved operating income and margins, which could support continued performance in the near term.

What Best Buy hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate potential inflationary pressures. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like AMZN and BABA could influence BBY's trajectory in the Consumer Discretionary space.