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Ball Corporation (BALL)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$57.37+0.68%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. If BALL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Market cap
- $15.28B
- Employees
- 16,000
- IPO date
- 1994-03-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$86.98consensus
Range $63.00 – $91.93
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$140.60consensus
Range $130.14 – $140.68
vs price: -59% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $57 BALL trades at 16× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median. Our $86 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.9x
peer 25.3x · own history 17.8x
Premium
0.6x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-34%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$86.33
range $64.63 – $91.97
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
71st pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
29th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral14 analysts, 81% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.00 → $0.98 (-2.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 11 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme copper/electrification.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$249.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,211.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for free cash flow below $900 million in 2026
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning value to shareholders. Falling short could raise concerns about financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Free cash flow reported below $900 million for 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported at or above $900 million for 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BALL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SW, PKG, and IP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting BALL and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BALL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BALL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SW, PKG, and IP start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping BALL and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BALL and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Ball Corporation (“Ball") issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The Company’s results and earnings information regarding its first quarter, as well as information regarding the use of non-U.S. GAAP financial measures, are set forth in the attached press release dated May 5, 2026…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.