NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Ball Corporation grows earnings over 10% a year. Free cash flow exceeds $900 million. The company has a stable leadership transition. Valuation is attractive versus peers with a PE of 17.4 versus 23.5.
Revenue fell sharply from $3.38B in 2025-Q2 to $2.20B in 2025-Q4. Leadership changes may disrupt execution. Profit growth could slow if demand weakens or costs rise.
The price is about 0% above our $62.84 fair value. Analysts expect 6.3% revenue growth. We see upside if Ball hits its 10%+ EPS growth target and free cash flow goals.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26
Breaks if: Significant leadership disruption or negative CEO news
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth and cash flow generation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's commitment to shareholder returns.
The market currently reflects a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The fragility in execution quality suggests that while the stock is priced low, there is caution due to its recent performance history.
Management is on track to achieve its goal of over 10% EPS growth and return at least $800 million to shareholders in 2026. However, the mixed status of free cash flow generation indicates some uncertainty in this area.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and the broader Materials sector's performance. Key factors include inflation trends and the earnings performance of sector leaders, which could influence BALL's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat indicates strong growth in packaging volumes. This supports the thesis of achieving EPS growth of over 10 percent. There are no new threats impacting the outlook.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, BALL's fundamentals are showing promise, but the company must navigate potential risks and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
