Reading ATR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATR free→Reading ATR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATR free→NYSEMaterialsMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's track record is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ATR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $120.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $118 ATR trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $117 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.36 → $1.36 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$247.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,031.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose from fair to full. The sector backdrop fell. It is now a headwind. Risk remains moderate.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The guidance range shows what management thinks about profits for the next quarter.
Confirms:Adjusted earnings per share guidance for Q2 2026 is between $1.32 and $1.40.
Disproves:Guidance is below $1.32. This means weaker expected performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 10, 2026, AptarGroup, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Aditya J. Gandhi as Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer of the Company, effective June 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). In this role, Mr. Gandhi will serve as the Company’s principal accounting officer, and will report to Ms. Vanessa Kanu, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial O…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATR AptarGroup | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 1.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth across all segments, particularly in Pharma and Beauty.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency gains.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payouts to shareholders.
Why it matters: Sales growth in Beauty shows demand is coming back. This helps the company's overall performance.
Confirms:Beauty segment reports double-digit growth in sales for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Beauty segment sales growth is flat or negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Supply chain problems may slow growth and hurt profits in different areas.
Confirms:Management says there are not many supply chain problems for Q2 performance.
Disproves:Management points out major supply chain problems that are affecting Q2 results.
of this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 16, 2026, Stephan Tanda, the President and Chief Executive Officer of AptarGroup, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) of his intention to retire as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective September 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Following such notice, the Board appointed Ga…
of this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.