AptarGroup (ATR)

NYSEMaterialsMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$126.55-1.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AptarGroup’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.32 → 6.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$1.45–$1.53non-GAAP	—
Eps growth	22.5%–24.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	978.32M
EPS	—	1.406
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.97B
EPS	—	5.495
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.11B
EPS	—	6.176

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend payouts	A supporting condition in AptarGroup's published investment case. The stated target is quarterly dividend >= $0.48 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.48 next year	Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend >= $0.48 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 223c52b1-0fc8-4f89-9644-af6a6e0de7db. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.45 in 2025-Q3 to $0.48 in 2026-Q2. The company returned $212 million year-to-date in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases. Management is delivering on capital return commitments with a steady increase in dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS meets or exceeds guidance of $1.36 next quarter	Profit margins remain stable with EPS guidance of $1.36 next quarter.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $1.32 for 2026-Q2	Diluted EPS: $1.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.32 next quarter. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Jul 31, 20261.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 223c52b1-0fc8-4f89-9644-af6a6e0de7db. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or improve operating income	Cost management efforts continue despite slight operating income pressure.	Intact	operating income falls below $107M next year	Operating income: $126.722M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $107M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026126,722,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 223c52b1-0fc8-4f89-9644-af6a6e0de7db. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income declined from $144.4M in 2025-Q2 to $126.7M in 2026-Q2, and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from 22.6% to 20.7%. Management acknowledges short-term margin pressure but emphasizes ongoing operational improvements. The trajectory shows limited progress with margin pressures persisting. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth across all segments, especially Pharma and Beauty	A primary condition in AptarGroup's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.18

$6.25 → $6.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.11B

$4.16B → $4.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$6.25	$4,164,666,430	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$6.24	$4,161,498,080	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$6.24	$4,161,498,080	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$6.24	$4,161,498,080	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-11	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$6.24	$4,153,748,080	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$6.32	$4,151,997,802	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$6.32	$4,143,140,658	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.30	$4,134,983,516	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.28	$4,130,220,508	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.26	$4,124,942,944	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.26	$4,124,942,944	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.26	$4,124,942,944	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$6.23	$4,127,405,662	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$6.20	$4,120,294,552	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$6.20	$4,120,294,552	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$6.18	$4,117,350,107	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$6.18	$4,117,350,107	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$6.18	$4,108,743,870	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$6.18	$4,108,743,870	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$6.18	$4,108,743,870	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 9

$135.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 7

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$82.50$165.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend payoutsDividend per share: $0.48 per share
Maintain or improve operating incomeOperating income: $126.722M
Revenue growth across all segments, especially Pharma and BeautyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AptarGroup outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ATR is a business with signs of durable growth, supported by strong recent performance and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, but execution is uneven: revenue growth and capital returns are on track while margins remain under pressure.

What's priced into AptarGroup

The valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers and a 14% expectations gap; model confidence is low. This suggests the market already credits ATR with lasting strengths, leaving less room for execution to disappoint without challenging that premium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, sales growth has followed management’s stated priority, rising 21% over six quarters, and the latest reported quarter was an earnings beat. However, operating income and adjusted EBITDA margin have declined, and company momentum recently weakened; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty, though the evidence does not show a change in the long-term thesis.

What AptarGroup hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether management can sustain growth while improving operating income and margins. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance may signal whether the Materials sector tailwind persists. A guidance cut or weaker sector results would challenge the setup, while continued sector strength would support it.