Reading AOMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AOMR free→Reading AOMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AOMR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating potential challenges for AOMR. Management's track record is neutral, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with the company performing below typical compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from AOMR and the performance of sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.44 AOMR trades at 9× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $9.17 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -21.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.32 (-3.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,547.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect mortgage rates and demand. A rate hike may slow mortgage activity.
Confirms:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Disproves:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AOMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 19, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) and Falcons I, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and the Company’s external manager (the “Manager”), entered into a stock repurchase agreement (the “Stock Repurchase Agreement”) with Xylem Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Xylem”) and an affiliate of Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP, relating to the Company’s repurchase of shares of the Company’s common st…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AOMR Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pay a dividend of $0.32 per share to shareholders.
Aim to improve net income despite recent financial challenges.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts economic outlook and mortgage demand. Weak GDP may signal lower demand for mortgages.
Confirms:GDP growth reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported above 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects mortgage demand and the economy. Weak sales can mean less need for mortgages.
Confirms:Retail sales growth below 0% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth above 0% month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 20, 2026, in connection with the execution of the Stock Repurchase Agreement, Mr. Vikram Shankar resigned as a member of the Company’s Board of Directors, with such resignation being effective as of the Closing Date and being subject to the closing of the Share Repurchase. Mr. Shankar’s resignation is not the result of any disagreement with…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. Also on May 5, 2026, the Company will hold a teleconference and audio webcast to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the s…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The disclosure required by this
CHANGES IN REGISTRANT’S CERTIFYING ACCOUNTANT. (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On March 9, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the dismissal of KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. KPMG’s audit reports on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and December 31…