Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (AOMR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.37+0.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.14M
EPS	—	0.34
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	45.34M
EPS	—	1.242
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	45.95M
EPS	—	1.406

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.32 per share	Angel Oak Mortgage REIT aims to maintain its $0.32 dividend per share.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.32 per share	Dividend per share: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: dividend = $0.32 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 5, 20260.32 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d96d8f49-124b-4f59-96cd-a045240aba65. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company declared and paid a consistent dividend of $0.32 per share in Q1 and Q2 2026, matching the dividend per share reported in Q4 2025. Management has maintained this dividend level consistently, delivering on this capital allocation commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve net income toward profitability	Management focuses on improving net income despite recent losses.	Improving	net income remains negative through FY26	Net income: $3.353M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income > $0 by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20263,353,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0cb154f5-4a8a-41ea-afec-f6a517e6d55e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $7.4 million in Q1 2026 to a gain of $3.4 million in Q2 2026, while revenue remained stable at approximately $40.7 million. Management's focus on expanding earnings and disciplined credit is reflected in this improving net income trajectory, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stabilize revenue decline	A supporting condition in Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline limited to less than -10% YoY.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds -10% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Effective execution of share buyback program	A supporting condition in Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is material buybacks completed in FY26.	Intact	no meaningful buybacks executed by FY26	Buyback executed vs target AOMR entered a stock repurchase agreement with Xylem Finance LLC on May 19, 2026, satisfying the buyback execution target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company declared and paid a consistent dividend of $0.32 per share in Q1 and Q2 2026, matching the dividend per share reported in Q4 2025. Management has maintained this dividend level consistently, delivering on this capital allocation commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.40 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-25	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-26	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-28	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-29	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-30	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-31	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-01	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-02	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-04	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-05	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-06	$1.40	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-08	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-09	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-10	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-11	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-12	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BTIGOct 6 · prior Jun 17

$10.00 → $9.00-10.0%

$0$5.50$11.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.32 per shareDividend per share: $0.32 per share
Improve net income toward profitabilityNet income: $3.353M
Stabilize revenue declineDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AOMR is a rate-sensitive real estate business with a fragile earnings profile, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its thesis has shifted from cautious to mixed, but remains on watch because recent performance trails its industry group.

What's priced into Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.

Valuation is neutral, with the model indicating a modest premium to peers and medium confidence. The priced-in signal says the fragility is not fully reflected, while the expectations gap is meaningful; the evidence does not provide enough detail to say exactly what investors expect.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated, and another guidance cut would be a setback. Net income improved from a loss in Q1 2026 to a gain in Q2 while revenue stayed near $40.7 million, and the $0.32 quarterly dividend was maintained. Securitization activity continued, but progress on earnings and securitizations is mixed, and the broader sector remains a headwind.

What Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis would benefit if the Fed cuts rates or if sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance. It would weaken if AOMR cuts guidance, misses earnings again, or fails to sustain its recent improvement in net income. The announced agreement and share buyback are recent positive events, but the evidence does not establish their longer-term effect.