Reading AGYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGYS free→Reading AGYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGYS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, AGYS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 123% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 the market pays 49× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 63× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $39 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $90–$120. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 122% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.44 → $0.40 (-8.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$469.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,593.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target confirms growth momentum and market demand.
Confirms:Total revenue reaches or exceeds $365 million for FY2027.
Disproves:Total revenue falls below $365 million for FY2027.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AGYS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 18, 2026, Agilysys, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full year ending March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this report as well as in Exhibit 99.1 is furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$90.00 – $120.00 (median $110.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGYS Agilysys, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target annual revenue growth to reach between $365 million and $370 million.
Aim for an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24% of revenue for the fiscal year.
Increase expectations for subscription revenue growth, excluding large projects.
Why it matters: This margin shows that the company is making more money and working better.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin reaches or exceeds 24% for FY2027.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is below 24% for FY2027.
Why it matters: New AI products can help Agilysys compete better and make more money.
Confirms:New AI software modules will fill gaps in the product lineup.
Disproves:No new AI-native software modules are announced in the next quarter.