Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$106.10-1.79%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Subscription revenue grows at least 30% year-over-year: 14.3% vs 30.0%.
Agilysys grows revenue from $319M to about $368M in 2027. Profit margin should rise to 24% next year. Subscription revenue grows over 30% yearly. The company uses AI to improve products and profits.
Revenue growth could slow below 18%. Profit margins might stay near 21%. Subscription growth could fall under 30%. AI may not boost profits as planned.
The price is about 30% above our fair value near $87. Analysts expect 18% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median of $110.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 21.2% in FY27
Breaks if: No meaningful AI progress or product improvements reported
Annual revenue falls below $365 million in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AGYS represents a growth investment focused on subscription revenue. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and strong guidance, but the high valuation and risk factors warrant caution.
The market currently prices AGYS at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting expectations for continued growth. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential execution challenges.
Management aims to increase revenue and improve margins, with subscription growth on track. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations, especially given recent industry trends.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed guidance, the performance of sector leaders, and potential interest rate cuts from the Fed. Any negative revisions to guidance could significantly impact credibility.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook for AGYS. The company raised its revenue guidance to $368-$373 million for fiscal 2027. This increase aligns with management's objectives and indicates strong financial performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve full fiscal year 2027 annual revenue in the range of $365 million to $370 million, continuing growth momentum.
Breaks if: Subscription revenue growth falls below 30% YoY in FY27
Continue to grow subscription revenue by at least 30% year-over-year, raising guidance to at least 32% for fiscal 2027.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Subscription revenue grew 30.2% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, and management raised fiscal 2027 subscription revenue growth guidance from 30% to at least 32%. The trajectory is delivering with sustained strong subscription growth.
“Raising full year subscription revenue growth guidance of at least 30% year-over-year to at least 32%”
“Fiscal year 2027 to be the third consecutive year of at least 30% subscription revenue growth”
“Subscription revenue growth of 30.2% year-over-year in fiscal 2026”
“Subscription revenue growth expectations raised to 29% year-over-year”
In the next 1-3 years, AGYS's performance will depend on execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.