Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$120.69+0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Agilysys, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.20 → 3.20 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	93.86M
EPS	—	0.624
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	370.82M
EPS	—	2.456
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	433.58M
EPS	—	3.201

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 24%	A primary condition in Agilysys, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 24%.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 21.2% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.2% in fiscal 2026 and management maintains guidance at 24% for fiscal 2027. The trajectory shows management holding firm on margin improvement targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
AI improves operating leverage and product differentiation	A supporting condition in Agilysys, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI integration progress in R&D and products.	Intact	No meaningful AI progress or product improvements reported	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management highlights AI-powered features improving operating leverage and product differentiation, but no specific financial metrics or volume improvements are cited. The trajectory shows recurring focus with limited quantitative delivery evidence. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Annual revenue reaches $365-$370 million	A primary condition in Agilysys, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $365 million.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $365 million in FY27	Revenue: $87.677M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $365 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 202687,677,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8b80e6ce-066d-460a-b587-9c8ee215bd93. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Subscription revenue grows at least 30% year-over-year	Subscription revenue grows over 30% yearly.	Broken	Subscription revenue growth falls below 30% YoY in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Subscription revenue grew 30.2% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, and management raised fiscal 2027 subscription revenue growth guidance from 30% to at least 32%. The trajectory is delivering with sustained strong subscription growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.20

$3.19 → $3.20 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$0.43B

$0.43B → $0.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.19	$427,944,000	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.19	$427,944,000	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.19	$427,944,000	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$3.19	$427,944,000	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.19	$427,944,000	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-11	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.20	$433,582,750	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.20	$433,582,738	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.20	$433,582,750	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 24%Published status: Under Pressure
AI improves operating leverage and product differentiationQualitative condition
Annual revenue reaches $365-$370 millionRevenue: $87.677M
Subscription revenue grows at least 30% year-over-yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Agilysys, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AGYS is a growth-oriented software business whose thesis depends on sustaining subscription growth while improving margins. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and the overall risk rating is high.

What's priced into Agilysys, Inc.

The shares are expensive versus peers, with a reported premium of 2.26, while the model has low confidence and shows little gap between expectations and its assessment. The pricing evidence is tagged as justified, with low fragility, rather than showing that expectations are clearly stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent results include earnings beats and record quarterly revenue, while fiscal 2027 revenue guidance was raised and subscription growth guidance increased to at least 32%. Management still targets a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin, compared with 21.2% in fiscal 2026, so delivery on margin improvement remains unproven. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but peers have missed lately and AGYS has a history of a deep miss.

What Agilysys, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on sustaining subscription growth and meeting fiscal 2027 revenue and margin goals. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage credibility, while rate cuts or continued strong results from large software peers could support the sector backdrop.