Reading AGCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGCO free→Reading AGCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGCO free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where AGCO is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $112.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $113 AGCO trades at 19× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $145 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $108–$134. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.49 → $1.45 (-2.8% / 30d). 4 raised, 8 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$291.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,262.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping margins shows AGCO can manage costs and prices well.
Confirms:The adjusted operating margin was over 7.5% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:The adjusted operating margin was under 7.0% in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AGCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, AGCO Corporation (“AGCO” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In the press release, AGCO uses non-GAAP financial measures. For purposes of SEC Regulation G, a “non-GAAP financial measure” is a numerical measure of a registrant’s historical or future performance, financial position or cash…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$108.00 – $134.00 (median $123.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGCO AGCO | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
AGCO aims to increase net sales through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
AGCO is focused on improving gross profit margins through cost management and operational efficiency.
AGCO plans to commence $350 million in share repurchases in the second quarter of 2026.
AGCO's Board approved an increase in the regular quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share.
Management aims to enhance operating income through efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if AGCO keeps growing its revenue and margins.
Confirms:Q2 earnings show net sales above $2.5 billion and adjusted EPS above $1.50.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows net sales below $2.3 billion and adjusted EPS below $1.00.
Why it matters: Sales trends in North America are key for AGCO's performance and market share.
Confirms:North American tractor sales increased by at least 5% from last year.
Disproves:North American tractor sales fell by more than 10% from last year.
Why it matters: Starting the share buyback shows AGCO wants to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:AGCO announces the start of the $350 million share repurchase program.
Disproves:AGCO delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 2, 2026, the Board of Directors of AGCO Corporation (the “Company”) approved an increase in the size of the Board to ten directors (until the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders “the 2026 Annual Meeting”) and appointed James C. Collins, Jr. to the Board, effective as of April 1, 2026, to serve for an initial term expiring at the 2026 Annua…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 3, 2026, the Talent and Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of AGCO Corporation (the “Company”) approved certain changes to the Annual Incentive Plan (the “Plan”) for 2026. The amended Plan updates individual award opportunities, performance metrics and the weighting of these metrics to reflect the Company's current annual inc…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, AGCO Corporation (“AGCO” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In the press release, AGCO uses non-GAAP financial measures. For purposes of SEC Regulation G, a “non-GAAP financial measure” is a numerical measure of a registrant’s historical or future performance, financial…
of such 8-K, incorporated herein by reference. A copy of the press release announcing the completion of the sale is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.