AGCO (AGCO)

NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$106.10-0.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AGCO’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.32 → 7.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.89B
EPS	—	2.391
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	10.16B
EPS	—	5.614
Operating margin	About 7.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	10.7B
EPS	—	7.342

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Initiate $350M share repurchases and increase dividend to $0.30 per share	Share buybacks and dividend increases show steady capital return.	Intact	Share repurchases do not start and dividend stays below $0.30	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The quarterly dividend was increased from $0.29 per share in 2025-Q4 to $0.30 per share in 2026-Q1 and maintained in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently communicated this increase, and the financials confirm the dividend raise, indicating delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS reaches $6.00 per share in FY26	The company raised EPS guidance to $6.00 per share for 2026.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $5.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.08 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.0 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.08 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 873e503a-d3bf-4132-9646-90321f68f682. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The quarterly dividend was increased from $0.29 per share in 2025-Q4 to $0.30 per share in 2026-Q1 and maintained in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently communicated this increase, and the financials confirm the dividend raise, indicating delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin improves to 7.5%-8.0% in FY26	Profit margins improve with gross margin near 7.5%-8%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 7.5% in FY26	Gross margin: 24.75% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5 PERCENT. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 30, 202624.749971 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 873e503a-d3bf-4132-9646-90321f68f682. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $10.5B in FY26	A primary condition in AGCO's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.5 USD_BILLIONS.	Broken	Revenue falls below $9.8B in FY26	Revenue: $2.61B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10.5 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262,609,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 873e503a-d3bf-4132-9646-90321f68f682. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.34

$7.97 → $7.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.70B

$11.10B → $10.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.97	$11,098,285,930	16 / 15
2026-07-25	$7.98	$11,098,099,270	16 / 15
2026-07-26	$7.98	$11,098,099,270	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$7.90	$11,105,358,456	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.98	$11,098,099,270	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$7.98	$11,098,099,270	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$7.98	$11,098,099,270	16 / 15
2026-07-31	$7.98	$11,098,099,270	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$7.86	$10,922,958,180	13 / 15
2026-08-02	$7.86	$10,922,958,180	13 / 15
2026-08-03	$7.62	$10,800,018,100	16 / 15
2026-08-04	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$7.55	$10,776,476,930	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$7.55	$10,776,476,930	16 / 15
2026-08-07	$7.52	$10,742,747,050	15 / 15
2026-08-08	$7.54	$10,881,300,000	16 / 15
2026-08-09	$7.54	$10,881,300,000	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$7.54	$10,881,300,000	16 / 15
2026-08-11	$7.54	$10,881,300,000	16 / 15
2026-08-12	$7.54	$10,881,300,000	16 / 15
2026-08-13	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	12 / 11
2026-08-15	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	12 / 11
2026-08-16	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$7.54	$10,794,759,235	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$7.32	$10,731,462,244	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-04	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-17	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-21	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-22	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-23	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-24	$7.32	$10,731,464,337	11 / 12
2026-09-25	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-09-26	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-03	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-04	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-05	$7.34	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-06	$7.35	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-07	$7.35	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-08	$7.35	$10,689,482,344	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$7.36	$10,706,153,046	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$7.36	$10,706,153,046	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$7.36	$10,706,063,515	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$7.36	$10,706,063,515	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$7.36	$10,706,063,515	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$7.37	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$7.37	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-16	$7.37	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-17	$7.37	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-18	$7.36	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-19	$7.36	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-20	$7.36	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-21	$7.36	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-22	$7.36	$10,701,780,839	11 / 12
2026-10-23	$7.34	$10,698,837,982	11 / 12
2026-10-24	$7.34	$10,698,837,982	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	9	2
2026-06-01	5	8	2
2026-07-01	6	8	2
2026-08-01	7	8	2
2026-09-01	7	8	2
2026-10-01	7	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 19

$97.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 2

$159.00 → $146.00-8.2%

$0$87.45$174.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Initiate $350M share repurchases and increase dividend to $0.30 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS reaches $6.00 per share in FY26Published status: Broken
Gross margin improves to 7.5%-8.0% in FY26Gross margin: 24.75%
Revenue grows to at least $10.5B in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AGCO outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical industrial business with a recovery-dependent long-term thesis, not a clear turnaround yet. The thesis is in a watch state: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into AGCO

AGCO is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already cautious. Pricing is judged justified, with low fragility in the current setup rather than a broad mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

For the multi-year view, sales growth and management’s focus on innovation and cost discipline offer some support, but 2026 adjusted operating margins are projected slightly below 2025. Near term, earnings quality is fragile: AGCO has had consecutive misses, including a July miss, although the stated miss risk is low; the next guidance update remains important.

What AGCO hinges on

The thesis depends on whether AGCO can sustain sales growth and cost control while improving operating performance, despite a sector backdrop that is a headwind. A guidance cut would add pressure, while continued strong results and higher guidance from CAT, DE, and CNH would support the industrial backdrop; weakness at those companies could remove that support.