AGCO (AGCO)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
$126.88-0.34%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS reaches $6.00 per share in FY26: EPS guidance $5.50-$5.75 vs $6.00 target.
AGCO grows sales about 14% yearly, reaching $10.5B revenue in 2026. Profit margins improve with gross margin near 7.5%-8%. The company raised EPS guidance to $6.00 per share for 2026. Share buybacks and dividend increases show steady capital return.
Regional challenges may hurt AGCO's competitive position. The recent guidance is soft despite past beats. Margin gains could stall and revenue growth slow below 5%. Share buybacks face uncertainty and capital returns may weaken.
The market prices in about 5% revenue growth and values AGCO about 9% below our fair value near $125. Our fair value aligns closely with the Street median. We see risk in margin and growth sustainability amid sector headwinds.
Breaks if: Share repurchases do not start and dividend stays below $0.30
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $5.0 in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 7.5% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AGCO represents a cyclical investment in the industrial sector, with a focus on agricultural equipment. The current thesis state indicates a weakened outlook due to recent earnings misses and mixed management execution.
The market appears to price AGCO as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, the fragility in earnings quality suggests that investors are cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals may show mixed results in the near term. While management is focused on executing their Farmer-First strategy and maintaining cost discipline, the recent earnings miss raises concerns about future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and CNH. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for AGCO. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further pressure AGCO's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. AGCO's recent financial performance fell to the 49th percentile. This is down from the robust 56th percentile. The company missed its Q2 sales expectations. This indicates potential issues with revenue growth. The market has not reacted to these weaker fundamentals yet.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $9.8B in FY26
AGCO aims to increase net sales through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
In the next 1 to 3 years, AGCO's performance will depend heavily on sector dynamics and management execution. Not investment advice.