Reading ACRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACRE free→Reading ACRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACRE free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ACRE trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 117% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.80 ACRE trades at 5× p/s — 2.4× the 2× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.04 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 135% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.18x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.10 (-11.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$318.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,769.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector speeds up, it could benefit ACRE's performance. It may improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth is rising back to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth is under 5% year over year. This shows ongoing sector weakness.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACRE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2016-Q3, 2017-Q1, 2017-Q2, 2017-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per common share.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share maintained at $0.15 for 4 consecutive quarters. Despite a net income decline from $9.3M in 2025-Q1 to -$9.6M in 2026-Q1, the company has consistently declared this dividend, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns despite financial challenges.
“Declared second quarter 2026 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
“Declared first quarter 2026 dividend of $0.15 per common share”
“Declared fourth quarter 2025 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
“Declared third quarter 2025 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
Focus on improving cash flow from operations, which turned negative in 2026-Q1.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations was -$56.6M in 2026-Q1, a significant decline from $4.6M in 2025-Q4. This negative cash flow indicates a pressing need for operational improvements to stabilize financial health.
Address fluctuations in net income, which has shown significant variability.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Net income was -$9.6M in 2026-Q1, a sharp decline from $4.7M in 2025-Q3. This volatility highlights the need for improved financial management to stabilize earnings and address underlying issues.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 24, 2026, ACRC Lender MS LLC and ACRC Lender MS II LLC, each a subsidiary of Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (the “Company”), and the Company entered into an amendment to the Master Repurchase Agreement and Securities Contract (as amended from time to time, the “Morgan Stanley Facility”) with Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A. The purpose of the amendment is to, among other things, extend the initial maturity date of the Morgan Stanley Facil…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference. 2 SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORPORATION Date: March 16, 2026 /s/ Jeffrey M. Gonzales Name: Jeffrey M. Gonzales Title: Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer 3
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
“Cash from operations was -$56.6M in 2026-Q1, a significant decline.”
“Net income was -$9.6M in 2026-Q1, down from $4.7M in 2025-Q3.”