Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. (ACRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.45-0.89%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Improve cash from operations from negative levels: OCF -56.6M vs >0 target.
Ares Commercial Real Estate keeps paying a $0.15 quarterly dividend. It has announced share buybacks and M&A activity. The company aims to fix its negative cash flow and volatile net income. These moves could stabilize the business and improve returns.
The company is losing money with negative cash flow. Earnings are volatile and have recently missed estimates. The sector faces headwinds and the stock has sold off sharply. These problems may continue and hurt value.
The market expects about 2% revenue growth next year. Analysts have lowered earnings estimates recently. The stock price reflects these challenges and the current weak financials.
Breaks if: cash from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters
Focus on improving cash flow from operations, which turned negative in 2026-Q1.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario. ACRE is currently facing weak financial performance and operates in a sector with headwinds, but it is also positioned with a cheap valuation relative to peers.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation with low fragility. There is an expectations gap, indicating that current estimates may not fully reflect the challenges ACRE faces.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to recent weak financial results. Management's focus on maintaining dividends and repositioning the portfolio shows some commitment to improving performance, but execution remains mixed.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of sector bellwethers. Any changes in these areas could significantly impact ACRE's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: dividend falls below $0.15 per share quarterly
Continue paying a regular cash dividend of $0.15 per common share each quarter.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Board consistently declared a regular cash dividend of $0.15 per common share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q3. Dividend payments have been stable and management has maintained this payout level as a key capital allocation priority, delivering on this commitment.
“Declared third quarter 2026 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
“Declared second quarter 2026 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
“Declared fourth quarter 2025 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
“Declared third quarter 2025 dividend of $0.15 per common share.”
Breaks if: net income remains negative or volatile over next 4 quarters
In the next 1 to 3 years, ACRE's performance will depend on its management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.