Reading ACR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACR free→Reading ACR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly actions. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to peers, where ACR is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 ACR trades at 18× p/e — 1.8× the 10× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $16 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.14 (-3.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$73.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$297.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,361.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well ACR is performing in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release and detailed presentation regarding its operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the earnings presentation is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.2 as well as made available on the Company’s website at www.acresreit.com.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACR ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management targets post-Transaction EAD yields between 8% and 15% following the merger.
ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. plans to merge with ACRES Capital Corp to enhance strategic positioning.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can impact how much people spend and need homes.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims drop below 200,000.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a recovery in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth is speeding up to about 8% each year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant (a) Dismissal of Previous Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On April 27, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the Board of Directors of ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. (the “Company”) determined to dismiss Ernst & Young LLP (“EY”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, effective upon filing the Company’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The dismissal is not related to any disagreeme…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 29, 2026, ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. (the “ Company ”) and ACRES Holdings Sub LLC (“ Merger Sub ”), a subsidiary of the Company, on the one hand, and ACRES Capital Corp (“ ACC ”) and ACRES Capital, LLC, a subsidiary of ACC and the external manager of the Company (the “ Manager ”), on the other hand, entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), pursuant to which ACC will be merged with and into Merger Sub, with…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements with Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of Certain Officers On April 29, 2026, the Board, upon recommendation from the Compensation Committee of the Board (the “ Compensation Committee ”), appointed Andrew Fentress as the Company’s Managing Director – Capital Markets, Martin Reasoner as the Company’s Managing Director – Originations, and Kyle K. Brengel as the Company’s…
The ACR Common Stock to be issued pursuant to the Merger Agreement will be issued pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”) in reliance on Section 4(a)(2) of the Act.