ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. (ACR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
$13.82-2.54%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS near -$0.02 in 2026: EPS guidance -$2.04 vs -$0.02 target.
ACRES plans to merge with ACRES Capital Corp. This could improve its position. Management targets yields between 8% and 15%. Revenue guidance is about $2 billion for 2026.
ACRES missed earnings several times recently. Profit is expected near zero in 2026. The stock price dropped 23% from its high.
The price is about 1% below our fair value near $18. Analysts expect 3% revenue growth. Our model sees no growth over 3-5 years.
Breaks if: EPS falls below -$0.05 in FY26
Breaks if: Merger not completed by end 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity with a focus on recovery. The current thesis is cautious due to mixed signals from management and the sector backdrop, which presents headwinds.
The market currently prices ACR as a cheap option compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that the market does not fully account for the company's fragile execution quality.
Fundamentals may remain neutral in the near term, as there is a high probability of an earnings miss. Recent performance shows some improvement, but management execution remains volatile, which could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any negative guidance from management could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Finalize the previously announced merger and internalization transactions to enhance shareholder value.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The merger and internalization were anticipated to close shortly as of 2026-Q2. The completion was confirmed on 2026-08-06 per material events. The trajectory shows delivery on this priority with the merger completed as planned.
“The team has been working diligently on the previously announced internalization, which we anticipate closing in short order.”
“The ACRES team continues to grow the portfolio... and remain dedicated to actively managing the portfolio.”
Breaks if: Yields fall below 8% after merger
Target post-Transaction Economic Adjusted Debt (EAD) yields within the range of 8% to 15%.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Guidance from 2026-Q1 sets target EAD yields at 8% to 15%. Revenue grew from $17.8M in 2026-Q1 to $20.98M in 2026-Q2, indicating some growth in portfolio performance. The trajectory shows ongoing focus but no explicit yield results disclosed yet.
“The ACRES team continues to be proactive in managing our investments with a healthy pipeline.”
“Management is targeting post-Transaction EAD yields of 8% - 15%.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.9 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACR's trajectory will depend on its ability to navigate risks and execute on its priorities. Not investment advice.