Reading XPER? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XPER free→Reading XPER? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XPER free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated in the current market cycle, which is heating. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, XPER trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.73 XPER trades at 18× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by strategy shifts. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.21 (+70.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$411.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows fewer losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows continued losses. There is no improvement in finances.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XPER yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Xperi Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results and other information regarding its financial condition is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XPER Xperi, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Xperi aims to achieve a revenue range of $440M to $470M for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $114.2M, down from $116.5M in 2025-Q4. The company maintains its revenue guidance of $440M to $470M for 2026, but the trajectory shows limited progress towards the target.
“The Company reiterates its outlook for 2026: Revenue $440M to $470M.”
“The Company is providing the following outlook for fiscal year 2026: Revenue $440M to $470M.”
Xperi aims to generate operating cash flow between $15M and $25M for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating cash flow was -$18.0M in 2026-Q1, down from $4.1M in 2025-Q4. Despite the negative cash flow in the latest quarter, the company maintains its guidance of $15M to $25M for 2026, indicating a need for significant improvement.
“The Company reiterates its outlook for 2026: Operating Cash Flow $15M to $25M.”
Xperi plans to keep capital expenditures between $15M and $20M for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has reiterated its capital expenditure guidance of $15M to $20M for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific capex figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards this target.
“The Company reiterates its outlook for 2026: Capital Expenditures $15M to $20M.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls, it could signal a slowdown for Xperi and its peers. This affects overall market sentiment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median value.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above median value.
Why it matters: Any shift in management's strategy could impact Xperi's ability to address its loss-making status. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:Management shares a new plan to make more money.
Confirms the other:Management sticks with the current plan without changes.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Xperi Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year for the period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results and other information regarding its financial condition is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Sectio…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Xperi Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results and other information regarding its financial condition is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities. On November 1, 2025, the Company approved a restructuring plan (the “Restructuring Plan”) that will result in a reduction of approximately 250 employees globally and impacts all business and functional areas. The Restructuring Plan is expected to be substantially completed by the end of the first half of 2026. The Company expects to incur approximately $16.0 million to $18.0 million of restructuring and related charges, substantially all of w…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, Xperi Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results and other information regarding its financial condition is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
“Operating Cash Flow $15M to $25M.”
“Capital Expenditures $15M to $20M.”