Xperi, Inc. (XPER)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.83+0.69%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Xperi aims for revenue near $455M in 2026. It targets positive free cash flow of about $20M. The company plans to keep capital spending under $20M. Recent earnings beats show some operational progress.
Revenue growth is slow and cash flow remains negative recently. The company is loss-making and restructuring. Profit margins are low near 16%. Execution risks remain high.
The price is about 8% below our fair value near $8.5. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance. Our view is cautious on cash flow recovery.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $20M or falls below $15M significantly in FY26
Xperi plans to keep capital expenditures between $15M and $20M for the fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story, as XPER is currently loss-making but shows some signs of improvement. The thesis is in a watch state, reflecting cautious optimism amid recent earnings beats.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, with XPER appearing cheap compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for improved performance.
Management is focused on growing TiVo One Monthly Active Users and maintaining revenue guidance, showing progress in user growth. However, operating cash flow remains a mixed picture, with improvements but not yet fully meeting targets.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet user growth and cash flow targets, as well as external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector leaders. A cut in guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Xperi aims to grow TiVo One Monthly Active Users to 7 million by year-end 2026. The company also maintains its revenue guidance of $440M to $470M for 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating cash flow falls below $15M in FY26
Deliver operating cash flow within the range of $15 million to $25 million for the full fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow improved from negative $18.0M in 2026-Q1 to positive $14.6M in 2026-Q2. Management maintains the $15M to $25M full-year target, showing improving trajectory but not yet fully delivering the target.
“The Company maintains its guidance with respect to Operating Cash Flow $15M to $25M.”
“The Company reiterates its outlook for 2026 as follows: Operating Cash Flow $15M to $25M.”
“Reiterates Operating Cash Flow guidance of $15M to $25M for 2026.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $440M in FY26
Sustain full-year revenue guidance in the range of $440 million to $470 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly revenues were $114.2M in 2026-Q1 and $114.5M in 2026-Q2, consistent with the annual guidance range of $440M to $470M. The trajectory is stable and management is maintaining this revenue outlook.
“The Company maintains its guidance with respect to Revenue... Category Outlook Revenue $440M to $470M.”
“The Company reiterates its outlook for 2026 as follows: Category Outlook Revenue $440M to $470M.”
“Reiterates Full Year Guidance of $440-460 Million in Revenue.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, XPER's trajectory will depend on execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.