Xperi, Inc. (XPER)

Q: What's priced into Xperi, Inc. (XPER) stock?

The valuation evidence points to XPER being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is strongly negative. The model labels the pricing justified and sees low fragility, but confidence is medium, so the valuation signal is not conclusive.

Q: What does the Xperi, Inc. (XPER) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year thesis depends on continued user growth, delivery of the 2026 revenue and cash-flow goals, and progress toward stronger financial performance. A guidance cut would weaken the setup; rate cuts or continued strength among major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but neither resolves XPER’s execution risks.

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.18-0.58%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Xperi, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	117.55M
EPS	—	0.181
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	457.72M
EPS	—	0.881
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	483.63M
EPS	—	1.229

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures of $15M to $20M in FY26	A supporting condition in Xperi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $15M and <= $20M.	Broken	Capex exceeds $20M or falls below $15M significantly in FY26	Capital expenditures: $6.945M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M and <= $20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20266,945,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating cash flow of $15M to $25M in FY26	It targets positive free cash flow of about $20M.	Improving	Operating cash flow falls below $15M in FY26	Cash from operations: $14.56M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M and <= $25M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202614,560,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow improved from negative $18.0M in 2026-Q1 to positive $14.6M in 2026-Q2. Management maintains the $15M to $25M full-year target, showing improving trajectory but not yet fully delivering the target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue of $440M to $470M in FY26	A primary condition in Xperi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $440M and <= $470M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $440M in FY26	Revenue: $114.492M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $440M and <= $470M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026114,492,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eac22604-3084-4194-ac91-6a942e2dba90. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly revenues were $114.2M in 2026-Q1 and $114.5M in 2026-Q2, consistent with the annual guidance range of $440M to $470M. The trajectory is stable and management is maintaining this revenue outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.24 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.49B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$1.24	$489,513,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$485,597,400	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	5	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures of $15M to $20M in FY26Published status: Broken
Operating cash flow of $15M to $25M in FY26Cash from operations: $14.56M
Revenue of $440M to $470M in FY26Revenue: $114.492M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Xperi, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk turnaround rather than a proven durable compounder, and the long-term thesis is currently on watch. Management has made progress on TiVo One users and quarterly cash flow, but the business remains loss-making.

What's priced into Xperi, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to XPER being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is strongly negative. The model labels the pricing justified and sees low fragility, but confidence is medium, so the valuation signal is not conclusive.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has been steady across the first two quarters of 2026, and TiVo One users rose to 6.3 million in Q2, moving toward management’s year-end goal of 7 million. Operating cash flow improved from negative in Q1 to positive in Q2, but the full-year target remains unproven and the company is still loss-making. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, while recent earnings beats provide some support.

What Xperi, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued user growth, delivery of the 2026 revenue and cash-flow goals, and progress toward stronger financial performance. A guidance cut would weaken the setup; rate cuts or continued strength among major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but neither resolves XPER’s execution risks.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, XPER’s thesis rests on turning audience growth and better cash flow into sustained business progress, with medium confidence and elevated risk. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	117.55M
EPS	—	0.181
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	457.72M
EPS	—	0.881
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	483.63M
EPS	—	1.229

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.24 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.49B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	$1.24	$489,498,500	5 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$1.24	$489,513,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$485,597,400	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings