Reading XMTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XMTR free→Reading XMTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XMTR free→NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 390% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This valuation suggests that XMTR trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87, XMTR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (5.0× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~400% near-term growth vs our ~27% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $17 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $62–$85. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 400% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.47x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.15 (+12.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$253.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$740.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,993.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XMTR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 1, 2026, Xometry, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the issuance and sale in an underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of 2,647,059 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.000001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at a public…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$62.00 – $85.00 (median $78.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XMTR Xometry, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Xometry aims to raise its revenue growth outlook to 27-28% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $150.97M in 2025-Q1 to $205.14M in 2026-Q1, indicating strong growth. The trajectory aligns with the raised guidance for 2026, showing delivering progress.
“For Full Year 2026, we are raising our revenue growth outlook from previous guidance of at least 21% to 27-28%.”
“For Full Year 2026, expect revenue growth of at least 21%.”
Xometry targets incremental Adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 20% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $0.1M in 2025-Q1 to $6.5-$7.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 20% margin target. The trajectory shows delivering progress.
Xometry has entered into a strategic partnership with Siemens to develop a software solution.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The strategic partnership with Siemens aims to develop a software solution, marking a significant step in expanding Xometry's technological capabilities. As this is a new initiative, its impact on financials is yet to be seen.
“The Company entered into a collaboration agreement with Siemens to establish a strategic partnership.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 20, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Xometry, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Lukas Biewald to serve as a member of the Board effective as of the Effective Date. Mr. Biewald will serve as a Class I director whose term will expire at the Company’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The Board also appointed…
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities. On May 6, 2026, in connection with its entry into the Collaboration Agreement (as defined below), Xometry, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a stock purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Siemens Beteiligungen Inland GmbH (“SBI GmbH”), an affiliate of Siemens Industry Software Inc. (“Siemens”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 1,049,759 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.000001 per…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 6, 2026, the Company entered into a collaboration agreement (the “Collaboration Agreement”) with Siemens. Pursuant to the Collaboration Agreement, the Company and Siemens have agreed to establish a strategic partnership for the purpose of developing a software solution (the “Solution”) using the Company’s technology with the objective of integrating the Solution into Siemens’ design-to-manufacturing software ecosystem. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a pres…
“For Full Year 2026, we expect incremental Adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 20%.”
“For Full Year 2026, we expect incremental Adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 20%.”