Xometry, Inc. (XMTR)

NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$88.88-0.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Xometry, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.28 → 1.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$234M–$236M	—
EBITDA	$16M–$17Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	247.82M
EPS	—	0.239
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	917.75M
EPS	—	0.705
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.12B
EPS	—	1.278

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 20% in 2026	A primary condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable and effective management team	A supporting condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions; positive CEO transition.	Intact	Significant management turnover or negative leadership news	CEO transition completed (Jun 2026); no negative leadership news CEO promoted internally; director added; no management disruptions or negative leadership news. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 27-28% in 2026	A primary condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 27-28% YoY growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 21% in FY26	Revenue growth: 41.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 27-28% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202641.054587 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7d0c84df-2341-4e8a-9ecf-56c3710d7937. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Progress in strategic partnership with Siemens	A supporting condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Develop and integrate software solution with Siemens.	Intact	No meaningful progress or financial impact from Siemens in 12 months	Qualitative progress confirmed (Siemens deal described as transformative) May 2026 news headline states the Siemens deal is transformative, reinforcing the strategic partnership objective. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. The strategic partnership with Siemens was announced in 2026-Q1 and expanded in 2026-Q2 with a collaboration agreement. Siemens invested approximately $50 million in Xometry stock. Management is actively developing this partnership, showing progress through equity investment and integration plans. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.28

$1.37 → $1.28 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.12B

$1.05B → $1.12B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.37	$1,046,929,730	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.37	$1,046,929,730	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.37	$1,046,929,730	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$1.37	$1,046,929,730	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.32	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$1.36	$1,046,929,730	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$1.25	$1,046,306,145	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$1.36	$1,046,929,730	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$1.28	$1,114,772,150	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$1.25	$1,101,813,577	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$1.28	$1,107,894,935	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.29	$1,109,949,941	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.29	$1,109,949,941	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.29	$1,109,949,941	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.29	$1,109,949,941	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.29	$1,109,735,834	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.28	$1,111,756,155	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.32	$1,111,833,078	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$1.32	$1,111,831,440	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$1.28	$1,111,739,132	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$1.28	$1,111,739,132	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$1.28	$1,111,739,132	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$1.28	$1,111,739,132	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$1.28	$1,111,739,132	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$1.28	$1,117,244,168	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$1.28	$1,117,244,168	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	3
2026-06-01	6	3
2026-07-01	6	3
2026-08-01	8	3
2026-09-01	9	3
2026-10-01	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 20% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of 27-28% in 2026Revenue growth: 41.05%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Xometry, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on revenue growth and improving margins. The current thesis state is cautious due to weak recent performance and elevated risks in the sector.

What's priced into Xometry, Inc.

The market seems to have a low expectations gap, indicating that XMTR's current valuation reflects a justified stance given its loss-making status. It trades at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors are factoring in some potential for recovery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities such as accelerating revenue growth and improving Adjusted EBITDA. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose challenges in the near term.

What Xometry, Inc. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could provide momentum, while any misses could negatively impact XMTR's outlook.