Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-30
$51.91-1.22%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put FAST beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Trading Companies & Distributors: fringe margins under pressure (4q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 14% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 47% growth a year, above the roughly 11% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskFAST’s case rests on key-account wins and customer-site growth sustaining its accelerating sales trajectory. Revenue growth rose from 12.4% to 15.5% year over year through third-quarter fiscal 2026. Third-quarter GAAP earnings were inline, despite topping consensus by 2.9%. FAST trades at 42× P/E versus a 24× peer median, near its 42× history. Market expectations exceed our growth forecast, so the premium depends on execution. Margin pressure threatens cost discipline, and our model puts the next-quarter miss near 19%. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. FAST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 18 analysts currently covering FAST (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FAST in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare FAST with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Trading Companies & Distributors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put FAST next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand technology and customer site growth
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $51.91
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $51.91.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Increased device signings support technology and customer site growth.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Q3 results support growth objectives and 2026 plan.
Threatens: Maintain CAPEX guidance for 2026
Heavier spending expectations may impact CAPEX guidance.
Threatens: Maintain cost discipline and SG&A leverage
Pressure on margins could affect cost discipline.
Threatens: Maintain CAPEX guidance for 2026
Heavier spending expectations may impact CAPEX guidance.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Earnings beat indicates strong sales effectiveness.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Price target raise reflects demand strength.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Sequential beats indicate strong sales effectiveness and growth.
