Reading FAST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FAST free→Reading FAST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FAST free→NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FAST trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This valuation is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 the market pays 40× p/e — above the 28× p/e peer median but in line with its own 55× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $31 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $42–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 51% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.32 (+0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$210.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,190.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Daily sales growth is a key indicator of demand. A drop below 10% could signal weakening market conditions.
Confirms:Q2 daily sales grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 daily sales growth remains at or above 10% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FAST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (the 'Board') of Fastenal Company (the 'Company') elected as a director of the Company Mr. Vishal Talwar, effective on June 12, 2026, increasing the number of directors on the Board from eleven to twelve on this date. Mr. Talwar was elected to serve as an independent director until the Company's next annual…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$42.00 – $50.00 (median $46.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
WCC WESCO International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving sales effectiveness by securing key account wins and expanding customer contracts.
Maintain capital expenditure guidance for 2026 within the range of $310 million to $330 million.
Drive growth by expanding technology offerings and increasing customer site presence.
Approved the Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan.
Why it matters: New technology can make customer service better. It also helps the company compete.
Confirms:New tech projects or partnerships can make service delivery better.
Disproves:No news on tech initiatives or delays in planned expansions.
Why it matters: Strong growth in FMI technology sales shows good digital change and customer use.
Confirms:FMI technology sales grew more than 15% year over year.
Disproves:FMI technology sales grew less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in CAPEX guidance can show shifts in growth plans and investment focus.
Confirms one read:Management keeps or raises CAPEX guidance for 2026.
Confirms the other:Management has cut CAPEX guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Winning key accounts boosts sales effectiveness. This is crucial for sustaining growth in a maturing sector.
Confirms:Announcement of new key account wins that contribute to sales growth.
Disproves:No new key account wins announced, or existing accounts show declining sales.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On April 23, 2026, Fastenal Company ('Fastenal') held its annual meeting of shareholders in Winona, Minnesota ('2026 Annual Meeting'). At the 2026 Annual Meeting, Fastenal's shareholders approved the Fastenal Company Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and the Fastenal Company Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan. Descript…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 13, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing the results of its most recently ended fiscal quarter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing the results of its most recently ended fiscal quarter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Executive Officer and Director On December 19, 2025, Daniel L. Florness, the Chief Executive Officer ('CEO') of Fastenal Company ('Fastenal') and a director of Fastenal's Board of Directors (the 'Board'), submitted a letter to the Board advising them of the following: (1) Mr. Florness' decision to voluntarily step out of his ro…