Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-15
$49.41-0.06%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-15
Research Workspace
Put FAST beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Trading Companies & Distributors: fringe margins under pressure (4q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 13% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 47% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskFastenal's growth in construction sales has to keep compounding to justify the price. The company reported a 17% increase in construction sales for Q2 2026, marking strong momentum. Fastenal trades at 42× P/E versus a peer median of 21×, indicating the market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. The valuation looks expensive, with elevated expectations that may not be justified. A potential guidance cut could negatively impact the stock, with a 20% miss probability for the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. FAST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 18 analysts currently covering FAST (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FAST in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare FAST with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Trading Companies & Distributors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put FAST next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Sequential beats indicate strong sales effectiveness and growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $49.41
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $49.41.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Reshoring trends enhance key account sales effectiveness.
Threatens: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Revenue forecasts exceeded but shares fell, indicating concerns.
Advances: Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
Revenue exceeding estimates supports sales effectiveness objective.
