What's priced into Fastenal (FAST) stock?

The market has priced in an expensive valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the current valuation may not be justified given the company's execution quality.

What does the Fastenal (FAST) outlook hinge on?

The future performance of FAST hinges on sector bellwethers like GWW, FERG, and WCC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support FAST's growth; however, any negative guidance from them could pose a risk.

Fastenal (FAST) Outlook: What's Priced In

What could strengthen or challenge Fastenal’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.41 → 1.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Twelve-year operating bridge · estimated, unvalidated forecasts
Operating measure	Path	Year 2027	Year 2028	Year 2029
RevenueUSD B	Projected	10.06	11.27	12.62
Revenue growth	Projected	15.0%	12.0%	12.0%
Operating marginExecution focus	Projected	21.0%	22.0%	22.0%
Common earningsUSD B	Projected	1.60	1.88	2.10
EPSUSD/share	Projected	1.39	1.63	1.83
Net reinvestmentUSD B	Projected	0.21	0.34	0.36
Gross cash capexUSD B	Projected	0.19	0.38	0.38
Depreciation / amort.USD B	Projected	0.18	0.21	0.21
Working capital addedUSD B	Projected	0.20	0.17	0.19
Common bookUSD B	Projected	4.34	4.73	5.14
Operating capitalUSD B	Projected	4.51	4.85	5.21
ROIC	Projected	37.3%	41.7%	43.4%
Common excess earningsUSD B	Projected	1.26	1.52	1.71
SharesB	Projected	1.15	1.15	1.15
Share change	Projected	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Net common cashUSD B	Projected	1.32	1.49	1.69
Common-cash requirementUSD B	Projected	0.00	0.00	0.00
Forecast stage	explicit	explicit	explicit

Operating measure

Path

Year 2027

Year 2028

Year 2029

RevenueUSD B

Projected

10.06

11.27

12.62

Revenue growth

Projected

15.0%

12.0%

Operating marginExecution focus

Projected

21.0%

22.0%

Common earningsUSD B

Projected

1.60

1.88

2.10

EPSUSD/share

Projected

1.39

1.63

1.83

Net reinvestmentUSD B

Projected

0.21

0.34

0.36

Gross cash capexUSD B

Projected

0.19

0.38

Depreciation / amort.USD B

Projected

0.18

0.21

Working capital addedUSD B

Projected

0.20

0.17

0.19

Common bookUSD B

Projected

4.34

4.73

5.14

Operating capitalUSD B

Projected

4.51

4.85

5.21

ROIC

Projected

37.3%

41.7%

43.4%

Common excess earningsUSD B

Projected

1.26

1.52

1.71

SharesB

Projected

1.15

Share change

Projected

0.0%

Net common cashUSD B

Projected

1.32

1.49

1.69

Common-cash requirementUSD B

Projected

0.00

Forecast stage

explicit

Compare the operating change with the company work identified in the published report. A named initiative is not proof that the price is achievable, and its value is not added on top of Living FV.

Calculate a target path to quantify the gap. Published projections and initiative links are shown now; a required path has not been calculated.

2026-06-30 to 2027-06-30 · consolidated model path · estimated, unvalidated forecasts. Accounting comparability with reported results is not established.

Revenue and growth

Revenue: Projected: $10,061,810,000.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Revenue growth: Projected: 15.0%
Scenario: Not calculated

Company initiatives in this report

12 source-declared links to this operating channel

international expansion
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
In international expansion we will be disciplined as well, accepting that it takes capital to support new markets over the near term to get the long-term returns... Right now, I would say we are in the beginning stages of exponential growth internationally.
Model setting: International expansion requires near-term capital investment for long-term returns; effects are embedded in consolidated capex and international revenue growth.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio, revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-07-14. Initiative ID: Ic62bf843fcd44223.
Source references: 898724 / 34ecebd3-fc67-53aa-a570-5539a3834161; 898724 / 34ecebd3-fc67-53aa-a570-5539a3834161.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
FASTBin and FASTVend device signings
Included in consolidated path · reaffirmed
Condition, timing and source
Goal for 2026 weighted FASTBin and FASTVend device signings remains between 28,000 and 30,000 MEUs.
Model setting: 2026 goal for weighted FASTBin and FASTVend device signings is 28,000-30,000 MEUs.
Affected fields: revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-04-13 12:07:12+00:00. Initiative ID: Idd96b867265927e1.
Source references: 898669 / f36aa90c-d684-5353-ad39-124c4a91ed2e.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
Digital Footprint
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
Expect to achieve 66% of sales volume running through Digital Footprint during 2026.
Model setting: Target to achieve 66% of sales volume through Digital Footprint in 2026; included in consolidated growth guidance.
Affected fields: revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-02-05 17:01:20+00:00. Initiative ID: Ieb298282220c4669.
Source references: 898679 / 89ace760-7b4d-5532-a192-89999cbb0cdc.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.

Thesis drivers and incoming evidence (0)

No explicit thematic driver mapping is available.

Operating profitability

Operating margin: Projected: 21.0%
Scenario: Not calculated

Company initiatives in this report

12 source-declared links to this operating channel

fastener expansion project
Included in consolidated path · progress reported
Condition, timing and source
Benefits will anniversary early in the second quarter of 2026, offsetting gross margin headwind from shift toward larger customers.
Model setting: Fastener expansion project benefits expected to anniversary early Q2 2026, offsetting gross margin headwinds from customer mix shift.
Affected fields: operating_margin. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-01-20 13:17:21+00:00. Initiative ID: If59792ddb66d2df3.
Source references: 898663 / da8b8bb6-a343-5860-8c2d-74681918fbda.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
take that product sourcing somewhere else
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
If the company is not surgical in sourcing, it will take product sourcing elsewhere, impacting cost structure.
Model setting: Sourcing initiatives contribute to cost management and margin improvement, reflected in the operating margin trajectory.
Affected fields: operating_margin. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2025-10-13. Initiative ID: I4010180722684b83.
Source references: 898723 / a43ecd5f-7aa2-5211-8289-8749e27783ef.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
faster expansion project
Included in consolidated path · reaffirmed
Condition, timing and source
Project promotes gross margin, offsetting other factors to maintain flat gross profit percentage for 2025 vs 2024.
Model setting: Faster expansion project is driving gross margin performance, supporting a flat gross profit percentage target for 2025.
Affected fields: operating_margin. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2025-10-13. Initiative ID: Idd49b5096b6979f2.
Source references: 898725 / ff52b4b2-12c9-5b63-8b9b-b1b91bfc15af; 898725 / 2c91fbeb-5575-57be-bc23-c6c57cd10110.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.

Thesis drivers and incoming evidence (0)

No explicit thematic driver mapping is available.

Capital and cash timing

Net reinvestment: Projected: $206,236,200.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Net PPE investment: Projected: $5,000,000.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Working capital added: Projected: $201,236,200.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Common-cash requirement: Projected: $0.00
Scenario: Not calculated

Investment and funding are different. A modeled cash requirement needs a funding source, cost and ownership effect; cash-reserve policies are not interchangeable with financing.

Company initiatives in this report

12 source-declared links to this operating channel

hub capacity. FMI devices automation and technology
Included in consolidated path · reaffirmed
Condition, timing and source
For full-year 2026, we continue to expect net capital expenditures of approximately $320 million as we invest in hub capacity, FMI devices, automation, and technology.
Model setting: FY2026 net capex of ~$320M is reaffirmed; represents ~3.5% of consensus revenue. Included in consolidated capex forecast.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-07-14. Initiative ID: I2b50c29a19943f18.
Source references: 898728 / 47bbf91c-8deb-565f-b8cc-92917b48fa3a; 898728 / af7e312b-617d-538a-ab49-b726e9ab3f27.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
hub capacity, FMI devices, automation, and technology
Included in consolidated path · reaffirmed
Condition, timing and source
For full-year 2026, we continue to expect net capital expenditures of approximately $320 million as we invest in hub capacity, FMI devices, automation, and technology.
Model setting: FY2026 net capex of ~$320M is reaffirmed; represents ~3.5% of consensus revenue. Included in consolidated capex forecast.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-07-14. Initiative ID: I36ee7bdfcf6755e6.
Source references: 898724 / ed294dd4-5af6-5857-b5d0-0b9b42380a34; 898728 / af7e312b-617d-538a-ab49-b726e9ab3f27.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
international expansion
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
In international expansion we will be disciplined as well, accepting that it takes capital to support new markets over the near term to get the long-term returns... Right now, I would say we are in the beginning stages of exponential growth internationally.
Model setting: International expansion requires near-term capital investment for long-term returns; effects are embedded in consolidated capex and international revenue growth.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio, revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-07-14. Initiative ID: Ic62bf843fcd44223.
Source references: 898724 / 34ecebd3-fc67-53aa-a570-5539a3834161; 898724 / 34ecebd3-fc67-53aa-a570-5539a3834161.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.

Thesis drivers and incoming evidence (0)

No explicit thematic driver mapping is available.

3 published drivers remain unmapped to operating channels. Their original evidence remains in the thesis table.

Timing matters: changing a selected year does not shift an initiative's disclosed delivery date or establish that it can meet the requirement. Forecast outcomes are unknown; no numerical completion percentage is inferred.

32 unique initiative records shown from 140; 108 others, including unquantified or unsupported fields, remain in the full report. Selection prioritizes declared consolidated bindings, then source date, with up to 12 per channel. Inspect all source bindings.

Estimate revisions, ratings and analyst targets in Incoming Evidence describe expectations, not delivered outcomes. No initiative dollar attribution is claimed without an engine counterfactual.

Equity return	Living FV at report date
7.3%	$50.17
8.3%	$40.03
9.3%	$33.16

Equity return

Living FV at report date

7.3%

$50.17

8.3%

$40.03

9.3%

$33.16

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
CAPEX increases to $310-330 million in FY26	A supporting condition in Fastenal's published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $310M and $330M.	Intact	CAPEX falls below $235 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $64.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $310M and $330M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 16, 202664,099,999 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes

Key Factor

Why It Matters

Current Status

Break Condition

Latest Evidence

CAPEX increases to $310-330 million in FY26

A supporting condition in Fastenal's published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $310M and $330M.

Intact

CAPEX falls below $235 million in FY26

Capital expenditures: $64.1M

FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $310M and $330M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation.

Source published Jul 16, 202664,099,999 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026

Measurement source

consolidated · GAAP

FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026

Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2.

Source status: unverified.

Compare required operating outcomes

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.39	$10,105,411,210	15 / 16
2026-07-25	$1.39	$10,109,827,660	15 / 16
2026-07-26	$1.39	$10,109,827,660	15 / 16
2026-07-27	$1.39	$10,109,827,660	15 / 16
2026-07-28	$1.40	$10,120,025,078	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$1.40	$10,120,025,078	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$1.40	$10,120,025,078	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.39	$10,109,807,650	15 / 16
2026-08-03	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$1.39	$10,109,807,650	15 / 16
2026-08-06	$1.39	$10,109,807,650	15 / 16
2026-08-07	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.39	$10,126,348,220	15 / 16
2026-08-09	$1.39	$10,126,348,220	15 / 16
2026-08-10	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-11	$1.39	$10,126,348,220	15 / 16
2026-08-12	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-15	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-16	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$1.40	$10,136,091,744	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-08-31	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-09-01	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-09-02	$1.40	$10,167,154,848	12 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.40	$10,167,140,115	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$1.40	$10,171,640,115	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$1.40	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$1.41	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$1.41	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$1.41	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$1.41	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$1.41	$10,178,360,848	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$1.41	$10,188,496,001	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$1.40	$10,196,978,469	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$1.40	$10,196,978,469	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$1.40	$10,196,978,469	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$1.40	$10,196,978,469	12 / 12
2026-10-13	$1.40	$10,196,980,619	12 / 12
2026-10-14	$1.41	$10,208,767,285	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$1.41	$10,219,975,609	12 / 12

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp

Snapshot

EPS

Revenue

EPS / revenue analysts

2026-07-24

$1.39

$10,105,411,210

15 / 16

2026-07-25

$1.39

$10,109,827,660

15 / 16

2026-07-26

$1.39

$10,109,827,660

15 / 16

2026-07-27

$1.39

$10,109,827,660

15 / 16

2026-07-28

$1.40

$10,120,025,078

12 / 12

2026-07-29

$1.40

$10,120,025,078

12 / 12

2026-07-30

$1.40

$10,120,025,078

12 / 12

2026-07-31

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-01

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-02

$1.39

$10,109,807,650

15 / 16

2026-08-03

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-04

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-05

$1.39

$10,109,807,650

15 / 16

2026-08-06

$1.39

$10,109,807,650

15 / 16

2026-08-07

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-08

$1.39

$10,126,348,220

15 / 16

2026-08-09

$1.39

$10,126,348,220

15 / 16

2026-08-10

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-11

$1.39

$10,126,348,220

15 / 16

2026-08-12

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-13

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-14

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-15

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-16

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-17

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-18

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-19

$1.40

$10,136,091,744

12 / 12

2026-08-20

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-21

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-22

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-23

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-24

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-25

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-26

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-27

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-28

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-29

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-30

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-08-31

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-09-01

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-09-02

$1.40

$10,167,154,848

12 / 12

2026-09-03

$1.40

$10,167,140,115

12 / 12

2026-09-04

$1.40

$10,171,640,115

12 / 12

2026-09-05

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-06

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-07

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-08

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-09

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-10

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-11

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-12

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-13

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-14

$1.40

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-15

$1.41

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-16

$1.41

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-17

$1.41

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-18

$1.41

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-19

$1.41

$10,178,360,848

12 / 12

2026-09-20

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-21

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-22

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-23

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-24

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-25

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-26

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-27

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-28

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-29

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-09-30

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-01

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-02

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-03

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-04

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-05

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-06

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-07

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-08

$1.41

$10,188,496,001

12 / 12

2026-10-09

$1.40

$10,196,978,469

12 / 12

2026-10-10

$1.40

$10,196,978,469

12 / 12

2026-10-11

$1.40

$10,196,978,469

12 / 12

2026-10-12

$1.40

$10,196,978,469

12 / 12

2026-10-13

$1.40

$10,196,980,619

12 / 12

2026-10-14

$1.41

$10,208,767,285

12 / 12

2026-10-15

$1.41

$10,219,975,609

12 / 12

Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	7	5
2026-06-01	5	7	5
2026-07-01	6	7	5
2026-08-01	6	7	5
2026-09-01	6	7	5
2026-10-01	6	7	5

Fastenal (FAST)

What could strengthen or challenge Fastenal’s outlook?

Living FV™

What performance would support the market price?

Operating margin

QuarterlyIQ assumptions

Operating estimates

What would close the gap?

Revenue and growth

Company initiatives in this report

Operating profitability

Company initiatives in this report

Capital and cash timing

Company initiatives in this report

Performance needed for a target price

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Fastenal outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Fastenal

What the fundamentals likely do

What Fastenal hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line