Reading HRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRI free→Reading HRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRI free→NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The three-year read indicates that peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis). This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $150.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $151 HRI trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 28× p/e peer median. Our $152 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $165–$198. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 52%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -238.20x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.74 → $0.65 (-12.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$264.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$526.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,950.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is maturing. If revenue growth re-accelerates, it could help HRI's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows an increase back toward previous highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 28, 2026, Herc Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. On April 28, 2026, the Company will conduct an earnings webcast relating to the Company’s financial results for the first quarter of 2026. The earnings webcast will be made available to the public via a link on the Investo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$165.00 – $198.00 (median $190.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-03-09
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HRI Herc Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | fair | high |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company is affirming its full year 2026 equipment rental revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges.
The company is affirming its full year 2026 gross and net rental capital expenditures guidance ranges.
Why it matters: Strong performance from peers like Caterpillar and GE could highlight HRI's struggles in a weak market.
Confirms:Caterpillar or GE reports strong revenue growth and improved margins.
Disproves:Caterpillar or GE reports weak performance or losses.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On February 17, 2026, Herc Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. On February 17, 2026, the Company will conduct an earnings webcast relating to the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. The earnings webcast will be made available…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, Mr. John M. Engquist informed the Board of Directors of Herc Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) of his intent not to stand for re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Mr. Engquist’s decision not to stand for re-election was not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating…
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. Indenture On December 16, 2025, Herc Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued $600 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.750% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 notes”) and $600 million of 6.000% senior unsecured notes due 2034 (the “2034 notes” and, together with the 2031 notes, the “notes”), under an Indenture, dated as of December 16, 2025 (the “Indenture”), among the Company, the subsidiary guarantors party thereto and Truist Bank, as…
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT. The information required by