Reading REZI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track REZI free→Reading REZI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track REZI free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, REZI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 REZI trades at 14× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $62 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.87 → $0.83 (-4.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -72.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$443.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,980.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The spin-off is important for Resideo's focus and value. It may change how investors feel and how clear operations are.
Confirms:The spin-off is completed on or before the mid-fourth quarter 2026.
Disproves:The spin-off is delayed beyond mid-fourth quarter 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for REZI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President and Chief Executive Officer — Thomas Surran: Thomas Surran is being appointed as President and CEO following the ADI Spin-Off Transaction.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
REZI Resideo Technologies, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth as a key strategic priority.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for financial health. It shows how well the company runs.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency and financial health. This can help investor confidence.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment shows good product demand and market position. This boosts overall performance.
Confirms:Products & Solutions revenue is growing more than 10% each year.
Disproves:Products & Solutions revenue is growing less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management. This helps with profits in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income is up from the $102M reported in 2026-Q1.
Disproves:Operating income keeps falling below the $102M reported in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact strategy and performance. The new CEO's direction is key.
Confirms one read:The new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a press release.
Confirms the other:No clear strategy or vision is communicated by the new CEO.
Why it matters: Operating income matters for making money. Changes show how well management is doing.
Confirms one read:Operating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1.
Confirms the other:Operating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may show problems in operations. This can change how investors feel about growth.
Confirms:Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is less than $216 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is more than $230 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Resideo. Results will show if they are improving.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On June 4, 2026 (the “Second Amendment and Restatement Effective Date”), Resideo Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Second Amendment and Restatement Agreement, by and among the Company, Resideo Holding Inc., a Delaware corporation, Resideo Intermediate Holding Inc., a Delaware corporation, Resideo Funding Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Borrower”), the lenders and issuing banks…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Resignations On May 6, 2026, Nathan Sleeper and Cynthia Hostetler each notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Resideo Technologies, Inc. (the “Company” or “Resideo”) of their intention to resign as directors of the Company, effective upon and subject to consummation of the proposed separation (the “Separation”) of the Company’s A…