Reading WSO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WSO free→Reading WSO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WSO free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $384.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $384 WSO trades at 32× p/e, in line with its 28× p/e peer median. Our $327 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $385–$485. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.38 → $4.38 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$333.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,344.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue remains stable. This is key for investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WSO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On April 23, 2026, Watsco, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an asset purchase agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) together with Jackson Supply Company, a Texas corporation (“ Seller ”), Jackson Supply LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“ Buyer ”), and the other parties thereto, pursuant to which Buyer has agreed to purchase the assets, and assume certain of the liabilities…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$385.00 – $485.00 (median $425.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WSO Watsco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to prioritize dividend payments with a recent 10% increase to $13.20 per share.
Execute the asset purchase agreement with Jackson Supply to drive growth.
Focus on maintaining stable revenue levels despite market challenges.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue shows recovery in the HVAC market. It also shows good management.
Confirms:Q2 revenue shows growth or stabilization compared to Q1 results of $1.53 billion.
Disproves:Q2 revenue drops more from Q1 levels. This shows ongoing market challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows good financial health. Cuts may mean cash flow issues.
Confirms:Announcement of dividend payments for the next quarter.
Disproves:Announcement of a dividend cut or stop.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show the company is doing well. They also show care for shareholders.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend remains at $3.0 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Management cuts or stops the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company runs more efficiently. It also shows better financial health.
Confirms:Operating cash flow for Q2 is over $19 million. This shows recovery from Q1.
Disproves:Operating cash flow is low or drops. This shows ongoing operational problems.
Why it matters: Changes in pricing can affect revenue and margins. This shows market trends and cost issues.
Confirms one read:Average selling prices for HVAC equipment increase beyond the recent 9% rise.
Confirms the other:Average selling prices drop or stay the same. This shows possible pricing pressure.
Why it matters: This purchase could impact growth and capital allocation. Delays or issues may hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Jackson Supply has announced that it has finished buying the asset.
Disproves:There are more delays or a cancellation of the asset purchase agreement.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Watsco, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On April 23, 2026, Watsco, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an asset purchase agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) together with Jackson Supply Company, a Texas corporation (“ Seller ”), Jackson Supply LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“ Buyer ”), and the other parties thereto, pursuant to which Buyer has agreed to purchase the assets, and assume certain of the liabilities…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Watsco, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference in this